Getting better

I didn't overplay this one!

Party Poker ($6 no limit). Hand converted by Check Raised hand converter



Preflop (9 players): Hero is BB with

4 folds.

MP3 calls ($6.00).

1 fold.

BTN raises $24.00.

1 fold.

HERO raises $94.00.

1 fold.

BTN calls ($76.00).



Flop (34.83 bets ($209) in pot, 2 players):



HERO bets $150.00.

BTN raises $797.40.

HERO folds.



Summary:





BTN doesn't show and won $1152.90 (96.08bb)



I feel good about the laydown, considering that I was up against a pretty tight player who probably had me beat. I'm finally learning to accept that this kind of fold is fairly standard.

---

Unfortunately, this next hand is a train wreck. I hit one of the only cards that could help me, and then I check-fold.

Party Poker ($6 no limit). Hand converted by Check Raised hand converter



Preflop (10 players): Hero is UTG+1 with

1 fold.

HERO raises $18.00.

4 folds.

CO calls ($18.00).

1 fold.

SB calls ($15.00).

BB calls ($12.00).



Flop (12 bets ($72) in pot, 4 players):



SB checks.

BB checks.

HERO bets $50.00.

CO calls ($50.00).

SB folds.

BB folds.



Turn (28.67 bets ($172) in pot, 2 players):



HERO checks.

CO bets $170.00.

HERO folds.



Summary:





CO doesn't show and won $338.50 (28.21bb)



CO doesn't show and won $338.50 (28.21bb)

I bet out the flop hoping to take the pot down right there, but unwilling to go any further. Then when I hit my Q on fourth street, I was getting dangerously close to playing a big pot that I could easily lose control of out of position. I did not want to get all in with this hand, and I was scared that this guy would have come over the top.

Should I have checked the flop? If I check the flop, then I fold to his bet. But if he checks behind, I'd feel much better about that Queen arriving.

Should I have bet out the turn? I have no idea.

I could have done anything with this hand, and I could have lost a lot of money.

There was only one thing to do: Abandon Ship!

---

What a kick-ass poker weekend it was. I sat down on Saturday hoping to win large sums of crisp virtual Benjamins. I won one buy-in on Saturday, but Sunday was when I hit well. I haven't looked yet, but I won at least three buy-ins.

I know people hate hand histories, but this hand was awesome on the river. It shows what I really like about hold 'em compared to Omaha -- you can shove in after a bet on the river because you know it's more likely than not that your opponent does not have the nuts.

Party Poker ($4 no limit). Hand converted by Check Raised hand converter



Preflop (8 players): Hero is CO with

2 folds.

MP1 calls ($4.00).

MP2 calls ($4.00).

HERO raises $20.00.

3 folds.

MP1 calls ($16.00).

MP2 calls ($16.00).



Flop (16.5 bets ($66) in pot, 3 players):



MP1 checks.

MP2 checks.

HERO bets $50.00.

MP1 folds.

MP2 calls ($50.00).



Turn (41.5 bets ($166) in pot, 2 players):



MP2 checks.

HERO checks.



River (41.5 bets ($166) in pot, 2 players):



MP2 bets $190.75.

HERO raises $645.89.

MP2 calls ($180.92).



Summary:





MP2 has Two pair, Jacks and Nines [ ]



HERO has Full house, Jacks over Sixes [ ] and won $1180.06 (147.51bb)



---

Lol.

---

Wtf?

Oh. They're bastards.

Final Table

Thanks to the geniuses at ESPN, we get to see their pay-per-view coverage of the final table for free!

It's pretty fun to watch this event as it's now down to four people competing for the top prize from the largest pool in sports history. The finalists were Jamie Gold, Michael Binger, Paul Wasicka and Allen Cunningham. First place will pay $12 million and fourth place will earn $3,628,513 out of a prize pool of $82,512,162.

I like seeing a televised tournament without the luxury of a hole cam. The commentary from Phil Gordon, Mike Matasow, Jennifer Harmon, Phil Hellmuth and others becomes vital to following the action. They seem to be doing a pretty good job, but I guess we'll see how accurate their reads are when we see the hole cards during the real broadcast.

I also enjoy being able to view all the hands that will never make it to the edited ESPN broadcast -- the blind steals, the small pots and the flow of the tourney that explains the action leading up to those crucial moments that will decide it all.

Right now, Gold is limping into a lot of pots despite being the big stack. Why?

It's hard to tell without the benefit of seeing his cards. Even Harmon says she has no clue what he has or why he's playing this way. Whatever he's doing, it's working well. He's killing these shorter stacks on the turn and river.

The short stacks are playing really weakly. They're either raising preflop and then check-folding after the flop, or they're limp-folding to a bet.

Everyone is scared of Gold. He has so many chips.

Cunningham is all in with TT vs. Gold's KJ. A King comes on the flop, and Cunningham gets no help. It's down to three. There's one representative each from Full Tilt, Bodog and 888.

The winner will be decided as we sleep.

UPDATE: Gold wins! He kept his big stack intact throughout the entire final table and busted multiple players.

He had a 75 M to 11 M chip when it got heads up, and then he won it all with top pair Queens.

Why don't you write that in your blog, you hipster scumbag?

A new World Series of Poker Champion will be decided today, and he will win a prize of $12 million. I'm pulling for Allen Cunningham, just because it's been so long since a pro won the Main Event. It's a great day for poker.

The WSOP isn't the only good thing coming to an end.

Card Club on Lord Admiral Radio, the oldest and best poker podcast, is going off the air. Cincinnati Sean and Brent Stacks have put on the show for 82 episodes, and I've listened to them from the start.

They said the show has run its course, which kind of makes sense because it seems like they don't have as much time as they used to.

I'll miss the show, though. I used to listen to it on my laptop while playing poker on my foam chair in Santiago, Chile. There's at least one last episode left before it goes off the air.

It seems that I'm a little behind the news on this one, but Bill Fillmaff has also wrapped up his hilarious parodies of Phil Hellmuth (and other pros) after nine episodes.

Fillmaff was always entertaining, especially in the early episodes before the team-up with Ultimate Bet.

It's too bad that all these things are ending, but I'm optimistic that new projects will rise up to take their place.

To my eternal surprise, poker continues to grow and thrive, despite all the government threats, forum flamers, glass tappers, rake hikes, jackpots and lawsuits. I heard somewhere that the Main Event next year is expected to attract up to 12,000 people! That's just crazy.

Tales of an overplayer, pt. 3

I found that folding link I was looking for.

---

Party Poker ($6 no limit). Hand converted by Check Raised hand converter




Preflop (10 players): Hero is UTG with

HERO calls ($6.00).

3 folds.

MP3 calls ($6.00).

1 fold.

CO raises $30.00.

3 folds.

HERO calls ($24.00).


1 fold.



Flop (12.5 bets ($75) in pot, 2 players):



HERO checks.

CO bets $45.00.

HERO calls ($45.00).



Turn (27.5 bets ($165) in pot, 2 players):




HERO checks.

CO bets $100.00.

HERO calls ($100.00).



River (60.83 bets ($365) in pot, 2 players):




HERO checks.

CO bets $243.20.

HERO calls ($243.20).



Summary:





CO has a pair of Aces [ ]




HERO has Three of a kind, Aces [ ] and won $847.90 (70.66bb)




I wanted to induce the cutoff to bluff on the river simply because I thought it was more likely than not he was bluffing. His aggression figures were through the roof, but he only went to showdown about 9 percent of the time.

If I had bet out on the river, I would have won $243 less because my opponent would have folded.

It feels great when it works, but I would have felt like a big donkey if he had turned over AK or AQ.

---

I wanted to look at some under the gun hands to see which ones cost me the most. My perception was that I had been overplaying high cards out of position.

My best utg hands over a smallish sample of 32,482 hands in my most recent PT database: AQo, AJs, 99, AKs, 66, AA, QQ

My worst utg hands are: KK, TT, KQs, JJ, 98s, KJs

It seems like my perception may be exactly wrong. If anything, unpaired high cards -- especially AKs through AJs -- earn me more money than premium pocket pairs when out of position.

Huh. I don't know what to make of that.

Maybe I'm not overplaying AK utg as much as I thought I was.

Trapping

It only takes one or two hands to define a session.

Yesterday that hand was T6o from the big blind. I called a min raise from the utg player in a multiway pot. I flopped an open-ended straight draw, turned top pair, rivered two pair.

I push, AA calls. Ship it.

Today the big hand (possibly my biggest pot yet) was a set of 3s vs. AJ top pair, top kicker. He called my huge all-in bet on the river after I had check-raised the turn -- just as he was meant to. Good times.

Nothing out of the ordinary. Just big bets with big hands.

---

I think check-fold is an acceptable line with TPTK in a raised multiway pot out of position. Or perhaps bet-fold.

Thoughts?

---

I remember reading on some blog the story of the Happy Folder. I can't for the life of me find it again. (If anyone has a link, please post it in comments.)

The gist of it is that folding is OK. Folding is special. Folding is your friend.

I could get used to this folding thing.

Tales of an overplayer, pt. 2

How have I gotten this far in poker while still being so easily trapped? All I can figure is that I've relied on aggression and trickery well enough to win money from weak-tight folding stations and loose calling stations.

_Don't go bust with top pair, top kicker. I swear I'm getting better at this, but I trapped myself (again) with AK today. The situation was that I raised from under the gun and got about six callers. When I hit my King on the flop, I checked it to the button and then check-raised. He called, and I pushed on the turn because my opponent was already pot committed. He turned up bottom set.

At the time, I thought my check-raise would be a good way to narrow the field and control the pot size. Unfortunately, the pot had gotten quite large by the time the button called my raise.

I was talking to Vic about this hand, and he suggested betting out on the flop and folding to a raise. Another option would have been to check-fold the turn after he called my check-raise.

_Information bets. If I had bet out that AK hand, I probably would have gotten a better idea of where I stood.

One problem I always have is that it's hard to determine how much information bets are worth. You can put a percentage on most moves in poker, but information bets are difficult to define in terms of value.

Perhaps I'm thinking about the concept incorrectly. Maybe I should bet out for value and get out of the pot once I realize the pitiful state of my equity.

_Controlling the pot size. I would love to be able to play a small pot with TPTK or an overpair more often, but I don't know how. I worry that too often, I'll find myself making a laydown of a potential best hand on the flop.

I need to convince myself that I'll make more money by folding a marginal winning hand in a small pot than I will by pushing a perceived edge when I may well be drawing dead.

This should be basic information. Eventually, I'll get it through my thick skull.

Tilt protection

I woke up this morning with a sore neck. Not a good sign given my history of physical ailments hurting my play.

Sure enough, I played like a donkey and made mistakes that I haven't made in months. I needed a distraction to keep me away from the tables on my day off.

Enter Guitar Hero, a truly awesome guitar-playing game. I learned about it through the girly chat box, and it was only a matter of time before I couldn't resist its pull any longer.

Some people rock harder than others.

So I went to Best Buy and bought a Playstation 2, the game and a memory card. I'm sure I could have gotten better deals if I had looked around, but even so, the PS2 only cost $129, Guitar Hero was $70 and the memory card was about $20.

I spent most of the rest of the day rocking out on my new plastic guitar, and there was no chance of me wasting any more money by playing poker when I knew I was at less than my best.

I play a rockin' "More than a feeling."

---

I watched all of the tuff_fish videos from this 2+2 thread that Iggy linked to.

Good Lord, this guy is hilarious.

What's interesting about tuff_fish is that he isn't a terrible player altogether -- he understands concepts of odds, position and reading hands. And he does think through his hands as he's recording these videos.

But in almost every video, he goes on tilt and makes a horrible call or all-in bluff. How many times has that been my downfall as well?

Tuff_fish's aggressive game will win him some money sometimes, but his sloppy play dooms him.

He could be a dangerous player if he concentrated on why he was making some moves, why he failed to continuation bet others, why he slow plays when he should fast play, what his opponents think about his overbets, what information his underbets convey and how his mindset influences his game.

Patience, focus, discipline and analysis are where the money lies -- not in thoughtlessly checking down some hands, calling down others and pushing the rest.

BJ, Tourneys, WSOP and HSP

A new month, a new crop of blackjack bonuses. Why again do people dislike free money?

---

And what's up with tournament players, anyway? I'm not saying that all tournament players are like this, but the volume definitely goes way up in the chat when I'm playing a tournament. The lower the buyin, the louder the smack talk.

I think people are way too insecure in their own abilities, and they take it out on others.

---

Congrats to Ryan and Tuscaloosa Johnny for making it to Day 3 of the World Series! Hang in there!

---

Daniel posted about how Ed Miller seemingly abandoned the 2+2 Magazine, leaving it in a lurch.

Without any new content to publish, Mason Malmuth and David Sklansky republished some of their previous work that hasn't made it into a book yet.

Some of this material is clearly dated, and some of it is just plain wrong.

In one column, Sklansky says, "Short term bad luck can only hold you back so far. It is practically impossible to be losing 300 big bets if you can play at all. That much you can blame on luck. Any more and you must blame yourself."

Give me a break. Even the best players go on a -300 bet run eventually.

---

High Stakes Poker continues to be the best poker show on TV. It simply has the best players in the world playing a serious cash game.

I love watching the best players play their best game, while the weaker guys just call-call-call or make nonsensical all-ins until they go bust.

Doyle and Negreanu especially continue to impress. They're almost always right.

And it turns out I like Antonio Esfandiari's game -- he seems pretty solid and doesn't make too many ridiculous moves.

Tales of an overplayer

First things first. Check out these blogs that I've added to my roll:

Threebet 33
The Armchair Fisherman
BadBlood
Catching the Antichrist
Poker Retards
Go Be Rude
Grinder's Warehouse
High on Poker
Sloe Times
Tripjax
Twenty-one Outs Twice

---

One of the biggest leaks in my game continues to be my tendency to overplay hands.

I take rockets too far, I push in any time I think I have a coinflip situation, I refuse to believe I'm beat if I can't put my opponent on a reasonable holding that trumps my cards.

I've been thinking about what Phil Gordon says in his "Little Green Book":

"Very often the guy who flops the set against me will check-raise. When I get check-raised and have an overpair to the board, I will think long and hard before calling.
...

When I have only an overpair to the board, I do my best to play a very small pot."

Easier said than done, at least for me. I'm getting better at it, but I still am tempted to get it all in with Aces or Kings on the flop if I know the only thing that can beat me is a hidden set.

That can't be very wrong, considering the prior success I've had with such aggressive tactics, but I'm trying to get away from those big hands when I can.

Here's an example of a hand I wish I hadn't been stupid about:
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)



UTG+1 ($416.50)

Hero ($394)

MP2 ($256.20)

CO ($400)

Button ($200)

SB ($180)

BB ($308.70)

UTG ($1127.41)



Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Ac, Ah. SB posts a blind of $2.

1 fold, UTG+1 calls $4, Hero raises to $16, 2 folds, Button calls $16, 1 fold, BB calls $12, UTG+1 folds.



Flop: ($54) Qs, 8c, 7c (3 players)

BB checks, Hero bets $40, Button folds, BB raises $292.70 (All-In), Hero calls $252.70.



Turn: ($639.40) 4d (2 players, 1 all-in)



River: ($639.40) Ks (2 players, 1 all-in)



Final Pot: $639.40



BB has Qh Qd (three of a kind, queens).

Hero has Ac Ah (one pair, aces).

Outcome: BB wins $639.40.

I could have folded (obviously), especially considering that my opponent was in the big blind and could have made two pair with any random cards he decided to take a chance on. I couldn't believe that he would make such an overbet with a set. I'm a moron.

Here's another hand that I may have overplayed:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)



UTG ($412.60)

UTG+1 ($435.04)

MP1 ($414.60)

MP2 ($366.74)

MP3 ($402.70)

CO ($404.50)

Button ($440.38)

SB ($882.96)

Hero ($398)



Preflop: Hero is BB with Qs, As. SB posts a blind of $2.

5 folds, CO raises to $20, 2 folds, Hero calls $16.



Flop: ($42) 9c, 8s, 6s (2 players)

Hero checks, CO bets $39, Hero raises to $120, CO calls $81.



Turn: ($282) Jd (2 players)

Hero bets $258 (All-In), CO calls $258.



River: ($798) 2h (2 players, 1 all-in)



Final Pot: $798



Hero has Qs As (high card, ace).

CO has Ac Kh (high card, ace).

Outcome: CO wins $798.

Based on the cards alone, I was a 66-34 dog on the turn, according to twodimes.

My thinking was that I had some fold equity with a push, and there was a chance that my hand was best. The more I think about this hand, the less good I feel about it. Someday I'll learn to slow down.

---

Play some ring games. The games are soooooo good.

It was a good run

Man, I wish I had written about my good run before it ended. I can't capture the same winning feeling now that the streak is over.

From the eight-day period ending last Friday, I won at least a buy-in a day. I didn't lose my stack except for once. Suckouts only happened when I was on the happy end.

Playing at 2/4 NL, I won 12.49 PTBB/100 over nearly 4,000 hands, which I'm pretty sure is a hell of a good record.

That's all for now! It was fun while it lasted. Back to the grind...

Running it twice

Every once in a while on High Stakes Poker, the pros will run a hand twice to mitigate their risk and increase the chances of them chopping the pot.

One such hand came up between Sammy Farha and Mike Matasow in which they agreed to see all five community cards twice. Farha had AA and Matasow had TT.

At one point, Daniel Negreanu said something to the effect that running the community cards twice didn't matter in the long run.

As counterintuitive as it seems to me, he's right.

I would have thought that running it twice would help the underdog more than the person who's favored in the hand.

If I'm Farha and I hold AA vs. TT, the bullets have an 80-20 advantage, according to Two Dimes.

Courtesy of a random post that I found in a search:

Expected Value (EV) calculated for this situation (lets assume 88) when you run the cards once:

AA: (+$1000) * (0.8) + (-$1000) * (0.2) = +$600
88: (-$1000) * (0.8) + (+$1000) * (0.2) = -$600

Expected Value (EV) calculated for this situation (lets assume 88) when you run the cards twice:

AA: (+$1000) * (0.64) + (-$1000) * (0.04) + ($0) * (0.32) = $600
88: (-$1000) * (0.64) + (+$1000) * (0.04) + ($0) * (0.32) = -$600

The expected values are the same but when you run it twice, AA will lose his $1000 only 4% of the time and win $1000 64% of the time instead of losing his stack 20% of the time and winning 80% of the time.

It's merely just a way for a favorite to lessen his chances of losing his stack.

Agh! Math defeats my intuition once again.

Spoiler:

In the HSP hand, Farha's Aces hold up the first time through, but Matasow hits a Ten on the river of the second board to chop the pot. He looked excited enough to crap his pants.

Oh Party, what are we to do with you?

Party Poker has done it again with its Monster promotion.

The largest aquarium on the net seems determined to make as many decisions as it can for the sake of short-term profitability at the expense of long-term sustainability.

The Monster promotion takes an additional 50 cents in rake from hands at many of the site's tables. That money is then allocated for a series of freerolls.

Essentially, the 50 cent Monster bonus amounts to a 50 cent increase in rake.

But is that bad for the game? Fish like dumb promotions, and I like fish.

The problem is that an additional 50 cents in rake hurts the low-limit players the most because it disproportionately devalues their winnings. An extra 50 cents in rake is going to cut into the winnings of a microlimit player much more than a higher-stakes player.

In the short term, the promotion will work as planned: fish will enjoy the chance to win a jackpot through a freeroll, and they won't even notice that their winnings are less because of it.

In the long run, more fish will go broke that otherwise may have survived, which is not good for the poker economy. My profits come from bad players, and the quicker they lose, the less potential I have to win their money.

New players and fish make up the base of poker's future. Some of them will improve, some will get lucky, most will lose. Whatever happens, poker sites need a steady stream of new customers to retain or grow their market share.

Here's what might happen:

Losing players will go bust faster, blame Party Poker for their misfortune and take their business elsewhere or quit online poker entirely. The repercussions will be felt from low limits to high limits.

No one wants to play at a site they consistently lose at.

Party has long had the best ring game selection, the most consistent fish and some of the fastest tables.

It also has terrible customer support, disrespect for its clientele, a B.S. stance on rakeback, unappealing software, bad promotions and a disinterest in the best interests of the game.

I'm curious to see how long it will take for Party's games to dry up and for players to find a better site to play at.

Maybe it will take a long time. I'm probably overreacting.

After all, fish don't care about rake.

Poker is a fad

I don't know what's up with these people.

Under the gun? Min-raise. Late position after two limpers? Min-raise. Open on the button? Min-raise.

It's like a disease. Everyone's doing it.

I probably shouldn't complain, because I don't think it's an effective move except in rare situations, which means I am directly benefiting from fishies' repeated and ill-advised mistakes. I benefit every time my opponent screws up.

But that doesn't stop min-raises from being annoying.

I don't alter my starting hand requirements ONE BIT against a min-raise, so the min-raise isn't forcing out worse hands. And any hand that warrants a min-raise would accomplish so much more with a full raise.

I think this is basic information here. Play strong poker, win lots of money.

I guess min-raises can work out well.

Like in that hand from the Mirage, where this dude min-raised from first position and I raised my pocket Aces from the button. He called and hit a set on the flop, and we both got all in. I hit my Ace on the turn.

See? Min-raises work out great! :)

Even Steven

Quick! Useful information: Game selection and observed hand histories at Party.

---

It only takes a couple of good days to come back.

Even though the casinos haven't been that great to me (I'm looking at you, Sports Interaction, River Belle and BellaVegas), the poker tables have been fantastic. Now my bankroll is as good as it was the day I got back from Vegas two weeks ago.

My good run started with good play -- successful river bluffs, devious traps and bluff inducing checks. After winning a few hundred by making my own luck, the cards started coming in.

Suddenly, my big hands were paid off. My strong hands held up. One time last night, I flopped the nut straight and had two people push in ahead of me! Even though the board paired on the river, my hand was still good.

I think I'm starting to get the hang of this poker thing.

The Not-Too-Distant Future

I cashed out today.

All the troops returned home. My 1st Battalion at Party Poker made a mass exodus to Moneybookers. All my money in the outer rim blackjack sites rushed back to the USS Neteller. Scattered change at Full Tilt, PokerStars and the Cryptos joined the evacuation.

In the background, pundits spouted bullshit on CNN. The headline on the bottom of the screen said, "Senate Bans Internet Gambling."

The party is over.

The fish are gone. The games are dead. The rakeback drip has been plugged, affiliates put out of business, shareholders ruined. The everday players have no where to go.

What am I supposed to do? I'm not going to keep playing in these dead-zone games, where the only opponents I'll face are the die-hard gamblers or flaky Euros.

I could just keep my money in my accounts. I could continue playing. But what's the point? This is the end of the good times. It's all downhill from here.

I'll still go to Vegas a couple of times a year. But it won't be the same. I won't have a real bankroll to speak of, and I won't be able to keep in practice without online play.

It was fun while it lasted.

Poker kept the boredom at bay, allowed me to support myself in South America, enabled some fun vacations while unemployed. It has been a nice source of emergency cash while I tried to build up my bankroll without end. I made some good friends.

Now what? Now nothing.

Now I go back to February 2004, to a time when the only poker I played was the Wednesday night game for $5. A time when slow-playing could fool anyone and that small buy-in meant more to me than a $1,000 day on the Internet.

My poker skills aren't worth much anymore. Like a foreign language, I won't forget the basics but the details will fade. What a waste of time.

I probably won't have much to blog about anymore. Thanks for stopping by.

I'm going to read a book.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

I hope this day doesn't come. It's approaching frighteningly quickly.

A Fine Line

What a gambly couple of days.

I started out Friday with an experiment on the Rampage technique. It's a little bit random, but I figured I wanted to give it a try to get some short-stack practice and hopefully make some easy money at levels I wouldn't normally play.

I started out with $200 at 5/10 NL, doubled, and then took that $400 to 10/20 NL. Doubled there on a resteal attempt from the big blind with KTs, got called by AJo and hit a T. So that was a nice $600 in about 45 minutes.

Then I hit up some blackjack bonuses, at BellaVegas Casino, Nine.com, Cinema Casino and River Belle Casino. I treated BellaVegas like a sticky bonus, tripling my $250 deposit to $750 on blackjack, but then got whittled down to $75 on American Roulette because it's one of the few games that clears the workthru requirement at 100 percent value. Stupidly, I misunderstood the vaguely worded fine print and didn't realize my play wouldn't count until the $250 bonus amount was credited to my account 24 hours later. I tried to treat it like a sticky once again the next day, but quickly busted.

On Nine.com, the deal was that you get $200 on a $200 deposit. If I had been smart, I would have cashed out as soon as the bonus amount expired, but I didn't realize that was allowed. I ended up profiting $15 after I burned my bonus down close to my original buyin.

Details on these bonuses and many more can be found on scurvy's list of casinos he's been playing recently.

Then on to real poker. I hit a slide by running KK into AA preflop twice, then receiving a couple of standard bad beats: flush draws that called all-in bets on the turn and hit, second-pairs that call all-in bets on the turn and hit a gutshot straight on the river.

Finally, things turned around. I started playing some of the most varied and accurate poker I've played in a long time. I don't know what to call it except Power Poker. My reads were spot on, my bluffs were effective, my draws with implied odds paid off. When I saw weakness, I bet big. When I felt a trap, I escaped while it was still cheap. Playing the players was effective, and my premium hands held up.

Since I started playing poker, my no limit game has been relatively unsophisticated because there's no point in outthinking idiots. But while there are still plenty of donkeys at 2/4 NL, every dollar becomes more valuable, and tight, standard play opens the door for aggressive players to manipulate your patterns.

It's a fine line between tricky poker and fancy play syndrome, but that edge is where I want to live.

It's funny. Earlier this afternoon I was questioning myself and thinking about taking a few days off.

But then I drank some yerba mate, got a caffeine rush and dominated the tables.

Donkin away

Stagnancy = poker death.

So I've been fooling around with my game again, which I can't ever resist when I consider new ideas. Unfortunately, when I make one change to my game, I have a hard time resisting other adjustments as well.

For example, I decided to change my initial open raise in NL cash games to four times the big blind instead of three times the big blind in all circumstances. My reasoning was that I'm a pretty tight player, so I could get more value from my hands if I forced my opponents to put in more money preflop.

I don't think that reasoning is flawed for a live game, but online I think it's probably a waste of money, for me at least. People easily adjust to changes in bet sizes and price their hands accordingly. I often found myself up against a better hand range than my typical holding.

I was seeing fewer people in the pot with not as many opportunities to make them make mistakes.

On top of that, I'm simply more comfortable with the 3X raise. It feels better, and it has worked for me for a long time.

Part of the problem was that I tried to loosen up my game at the same time that I tried to get more money in the pot preflop. I started open-raising with all kinds of marginal hands from MP if I had the opportunity. Sure, it's fun to get involved in more pots and try to outplay opponents postflop, but I think it's a more effective tactic in a short-term situation (like tournaments).

None of these attempts to diversify my game was severely detrimental, but I do feel they moved my game further from optimal play. At least I feel like I learned something.

I had it coming

Veneno had no trouble dispatching with this lowly poker gnome in or best-of-three heads-up battle.

For the most part, I got in with the worst of it and came out with the worst of it. Wasn't I supposed to suck out?

In the first match, I got her at a disadvantage and pushed her short stack all-in with T8s vs. KJ (I think). I hit a T on the flop, but then she hit her open-ended straight draw on the river. After that, I waited far too long to push in again and eventually had to push with any two. That didn't work well.

I got some revenge in the second game when Veneno tried to resteal preflop by pushing with 43s. Fortunately, I had TT. I think she may have just wanted to give me a false sense of security.

The third game was pretty one-sided. Veneno was able to stay aggressive and push me around until I pushed a one-card straight draw. She also had the same draw but with a better kicker, and that's all she wrote.

I made a few mistakes. The main error was that I was both careful and aggressive at the wrong times. At the early levels, I should have taken my time a little bit more and waited for the cards. Then I would have liked to have shifted gears with big bets. Instead, I played tight-weak. That's no way to win, especially heads-up.

It was definitely fun. I'll get her next time!

WSOP

LAS VEGAS _ The Rio during the World Series of Poker is like the world's largest card convention.

Hundreds of players pack the enormous card room. The clatter of chips creates constant background noise. Famous players stroll in and out.

Down the hall, each major poker site has rented a room to show off their software and try to attract new players. At PokerStars' room, I ate a brownie and lunch. At Full Tilt's, I identified the eyes of four pros to win a shirt. In Doyle's Room, I registered to win a large cash prize. Ultimate Bet player Antonio Esfandiari gave Drew an autograph.

"A-K Sucks!" Esfandiari wrote in Drew's autograph book.

Out in the hall, Chris "Jesus" Ferguson chatted with some girls in knee-high socks.

I heard the cash games were very juicy. I can only imagine all these tourney specialists and satellite qualifiers sitting in ring games. Yum.

And this was weeks before the main event was scheduled to start. I heard some people say the World Series hadn't even picked up yet!

It's the biggest poker event of the year, with larger fields even than in the last few years. The poker boom is still going strong, and there's no better place to get a feel for the action than at the Rio.

Post-Vegas tilt

Sure, you got drunk. That's the best excuse in the world for losing. No trouble losing when you got a good excuse. And winning! That can be heavy on your back too. Like a monkey. You drop that load too when you got an excuse. All you gotta do is learn to feel sorry for yourself. It's one of the best indoor sports: feeling sorry for yourself -- a sport enjoyed by all, especially the born losers.
"The Hustler"

Gah, teh Internet poker is getting its revenge!

Oh, how quickly I forget the differences between Vegas and the pixelated land of fast action and bad beats, where the average level of play is a little higher and the term "tourist" is more derogatory than factual.

The first two days back have been atrocious, where I've quickly erased all my Vegas winnings and then some.

Unfortunately, I have no one but myself to blame. I jumped into a 15/30 6-max game on Monday, reasoning that if I just single-tabled with some fish I'd be fine. And while that logic isn't completely off, it neglects the idea that I should be playing my best game, which is no limit (at least for now).

Then on Tuesday, I played some serious donkey poker at the NL tables where I was a bit too aggressive and a little tilty. I took a break, came back, hit a set, and lost to the nut flush. That was enough for me.

So ... nothing's new under the sun. There are ups and downs, and I hope I'm getting better at avoiding the downs. Although after these last couple of days, I begin to wonder if maybe I'm destined to tilt every once in a while, thus erasing the steps forward I thought I had been making.

But that's just negativity talking. Shit happens, but it usually doesn't last long. The main thing is that I stopped playing when I realized I wasn't at my best.

Hell, it's a two-day losing streak. I shouldn't even be complaining after how good I ran through all of June and the beginning of this month.

Note to self: quit bitching and just play gut.

Three Hands

I just had to show those creeps and those punks what the game is like when it's great, when it's really great. You know, like anything can be great -- anything can be great ... I don't care, bricklaying can be great. If a guy knows. If he knows what he's doing and why, and if he can make it come off. I mean, when I'm goin' -- when I'm really goin' -- I feel like...

... like a jockey must feel. He's sittin' on his horse, he's got all that speed and that power underneath him, he's comin' into the stretch, the pressure's on him -- and he knows -- just feels -- when to let it go, and how much. 'Cause he's got everything workin' for him -- timing, touch. It's a great feeling, boy, it's a real great feeling when you're right, and you know you're right. It's like all of a sudden I got oil in my arm. Pool cue's part of me. You know, it's a -- pool cue's got nerves in it. It's a piece of wood -- it's got nerves in it. You feel the roll of those balls. You don't have to look. You just know. Ya make shots that nobody's ever made before. And you play that game the way nobody's ever played it before.

"The Hustler"

LAS VEGAS _ The Mirage owed me.

It's a nice poker room -- It's like an ancestor of the Bellagio and the Wynn. A place that definitely wasn't built so Doyle and Chip could get rich. A place that was built for the poker player.

The under the gun player min raised to $10, a middle position player called, and I peeked down at the prettiest pair of pocket rockets. I raised to $40, and both players called.

The flop came 7 high, it was checked to me, and I bet about half the pot. The under the gun player check-raised me all in, and I called.

He flipped over 77. I was dead.

---

When I busted out of the blogger tourney, I headed to Bally's and sat in a $1/$2 no limit game. After an hour of folding and watching fish swap their money, I was down $7. That wouldn't do.

So I walked back over to Ceasar's and bought into the $2/$5 no limit game.

Four players limped, and I popped it on the button with AQo. Two players called. The flop came QJ7 rainbow. I bet, and the under the gun player called.

The turn paired the board with Jacks.

---

In the first hand, I suffered a good beat!

The turn brought an Ace, a magical two-outer, a 22- or 23-to-1 shot of catching up when way behind. I scooped in a large pot.

In the second hand, I checked the turn, hoping to induce a bluff, or, at worst, minimize my losses to three Jacks. When the villain bet the full amount of the pot on the river, I called pretty quickly, nearly positive that he was bluffing. He mucked his cards without showing.

I've already written about the third hand.

Those are the only three big hands I had all weekend. It was all I needed. One suckout and two premium hands holding up.

When your good hands hold up and your bad hands don't cost you, you're bound to win some money.

Perry

Steam vents at Volcanoes National Park

LAS VEGAS _ After a delicious steak-and-wine dinner at Binion's steakhouse, our crew headed to the Excalibur to drop hammers and bluff all-in against bloggers.

I had been looking forward to the game, where I could play against players including metsfan, absinthe, biggestron, Shane, Veneno, JoeSpeaker, Zeem and many others. Hell, even David Williams' mom, Shirley Williams (who I had played with before in Vegas) was there.

But many obstacles stood in our way: the waiting list was pretty long, the floorman was treating everyone like shit, there was no guarantee I would get into one of the tables I wanted, and the Excal poker room has been moved to a more crowded and noisy area of the casino.

So we walked over to the MGM Grand. After chatting with glyphic for a minute, I got a seat in what looked like a loose, jovial 2/5 no limit game. Daniel sat at the table two seats to my left a few minutes later.

There was this one dude in the four seat wearing a Full Tilt jersey.

Helixx walked by our table and filled me in -- that was tiltboy Perry Friedman!

Despite the presence of a World Series of Poker bracelet winner, we were clearly at one of the best tables in the house. Most everyone was drinking, telling some hilarious dirty jokes and kidding with the flirty chick at the table. I asked this guy to my right, Carlos, who had won the Ken Shamrock UFC fight earlier in the day.

Carlos asked if I was a UFC fan, and I told him I watch it when I can.

"Do you like Matt Hughes?" he asked. "He'll be at this table in a few minutes. We reserved it for him."

Sweet!

I got up to tell Drew that Hughes was coming, and when I got back, Daniel had doubled his stack. He had gotten all-in preflop with Aces against AK. Hell of a start.

Meanwhile, the table was rocking. Perry and the gang were cracking the table up with double entendres aimed at the chicky, the drinks kept coming and the game stayed juicy.

From the hijack, Perry raised to $20, and it folded around to Daniel in the big blind. He tossed out a call. The flop brought 10-3-3. Daniel checked, Perry bet, Daniel raised to $100, and Perry pushed.

Daniel called, showing the Snowman Taterlegs (83s) to take down a big pot. Perry showed AT, and he couldn't believe he had been beaten by such a crappy hand. That's the power of SMTL.

Then Daniel ordered a beer. If he's drinking at the table, I know it's so on.

I didn't have to wait too long for my chance to join the "bust Perry Friedman club." I called a raise in a six-way pot with pocket Twos and hit a set on the Jack-high flop. Perry bet about $55. I asked how much it was to call.

"That $55, and the rest of my stack, because I'm pot committed," he said. He only had about $75 more in front of him.

I just called and got the desired result -- one of the remaining players behind me pushed in, Perry called, and I called. Perry had something like second pair with a couple of backdoor draws, and the other player showed JQs for top pair. The turn brought a Q, but my three of a kind held up to take down the big pot.

Fishies came and went, Perry rebought, and the table was still going strong when I left. Hughes didn't show up, but I had a blast at one of the most enjoyable tables I've played at in a long time.

Impressions

I was in this bar last week and I ran into this guy I've met a couple of times. I swear I didn't even bring poker up, but he was talking about how addicted he was to his Playstation poker game (not sure which one).

Turns out, this guy had called in sick to work before because he had stayed up all night playing poker for fake money.

"Dude, I got up to like 2 billion in chips," he said.

"Man, if you're missing work in a fake money game, that's pretty sad," I said.

A couple of days later, some co-workers were talking about gambling. Most of them seemed to think that poker -- like all gambling -- is an unwinnable game. I spouted off some line about how you aren't playing against the house in poker, but mostly I kept my mouth shut.

Then, riding in a car with a photographer to an assignment, he asked how much I expect to make in Vegas. I told him it's a kind of pointless venture to anticipate how much money you're going to make because it's impossible to know. I gave him the old saying about how poker is all luck in the short run and all skill in the long run.

"I don't think I could deal with that," he said. "It seems to me like it's all luck all the time."

Sometimes I want to yell, "How bout these Benjamins."

---

I'm in the San Francisco airport now waiting for my connecting flight to Vegas. Almost there!

Aggression Frequency

The problem with Aggression Factor has always been that it doesn't give you enough information.

Postflop Aggression Factor provides a ratio of bets and raises to calls. (It's calculated as [Raise Percentage + Bet Percentage]/Call Percentage). It's more a measure of how rarely someone calls than a way of telling how aggressive someone is overall (because folds are excluded from the equation).

But postflop Aggression Frequency, a newer statistic available in PokerAce HUD's layout manager, accounts for every possible action except for checking (because the action of checking isn't necessarily a passive play -- it could represent a check-raise attempt). The formula is (times bet + times raised)/(times bet+ times raised + times called + times folded). It's expressed as a percentage instead of a ratio.

I took most of this information from this 2+2 thread.

It seems like Aggression Frequency is a more accurate way of characterizing a player's tendencies, and I started using it tonight. I think I like it a lot. I've placed the Aggression Frequency number directly next to where Aggression Factor is displayed so I can see both at once.

It's useful to know if someone will raise on 90 percent of his actions (in the case of a maniac), or if someone rarely raises and has a high Went to Showdown Percentage (in the case of a calling station). I love finding better metrics.

In other news ...

Vegas is going to be awesome! Hopefully with the way I've been playing recently, I've gotten a reputation as a donkish idiot. That's what I'm going for, anyway.

I will show most all of my bluffs if I'm playing with bloggers. I will play the Hammer stronger than Snowman Taterlegs. I will go for silly trick plays. It'll be fun!

Vegas coming

First off, doubleas book has been published. My copy is already on the way. I bet $23.99 it will be great.

Vegas will be a lot of fun this weekend. I wish I didn't have to deal with work days in between now and then. I'm telling myself that I'm going to take it easy and spend some time just hanging out when I get there, but I know from experience that I'll end up at the tables most of the time. I definitely want to drink and meet people, but I will really enjoy playing with some of you too.

I'm staying at the Sahara, which will require me to make much use of the monorail, which I like. I imagine my time will be divided between the Excaliber, MGM, Sahara, Bellagio, Wynn, Treasure Island and whatever other casino comes up. Those are the ones I definitely want to make it to, though.

Here's my hope: I want to hit it pretty big as soon as I sit down and then allocate part of that money to try and get even luckier. Like if I win $1,000 right off the bat, I might try to spend some of that money on winning some blackjack, roulette or craps. I could treat it like a sticky bonus.

But that probably won't happen. Even if I get off to a good start, I probably wouldn't let myself blow much of the money on -EV games. Probably.

I plan on playing whatever games come my way. At a guess, I think my time will probably be evenly split between limit and no limit. I want to play no limit games between $200 and $500 buyins, and limit games between 2/4 up to 20/40. I might not play $20/$40. We'll see.

It's been almost a year since I was last in Vegas. That was a great trip, after I had just returned to the States from Chile. I'm ready to get back.

Harrington, Vol. 2

Was it good? Yeah, "Harrington on Hold 'em, Vol. 2" was good. But I haven't suddenly started winning a lot of tournaments after reading it.

The first 119 pages deal with making moves, which is actually my favorite part of the book. Harrington talks about bluffing preflop, continuation bets, probe bets, squeeze plays, semi-bluffs, check-raise bluffs and dark-tunnel bluffs. This section is really informative because it seems like other books don't go too much into the details of bluffing.

The rest of the book is spent on inflection points and the concept of M, which has been popularized to the point of over-saturation in poker tournaments. That's with good reason; the concept of the move-in zone is basic and essential end-game strategy.

So all that is well and good, but I still don't seem to do well in multitable tournaments except on occasion. I suppose that's perfectly natural, because the chances of making a final table are proportional to the number of entrants in the tourney. Still, I haven't had a major cash in a tournament in a long time, and I've never final tabled one of those damned Full Tilt guaranteed tournaments. I would have thought I would have been able to do that at least once by now.

I guess I'll have to be patient.

What am I doing wrong? Here are some possibilities: I'm unlucky, I'm too tight, I'm too loose, I'm a donk at the wrong times, I don't get a good feel for the table, I try to play too much of a cash game as opposed to a tourney game, I don't have enough faith in my tourney skills or I worry that if I play too many tourneys I'll lose my feel for the cash games.

Eh. I'll get there eventually. I make my money at cash games anyway.

Poor play

For some reason, I'm playing shitty poker. I can't seem to concentrate and my reads are off.

Bad beats aren't the problem. I am.

Fortunately, unlike my Atlanta Braves, I don't have to play when I know I'm not playing well. I can just bide my time and hop in when I'm ready. I'm sure it won't be long.

In the meantime, my friend Owen's brother has started a company that publishes an e-mag called The Blog Reader. Check it out.

Baseball and the Palomar

I'm sitting in the Los Angeles airport after a great, fun, exciting weekend of baseball, cards and friends.

After hitting up the Hustler when I got in on Saturday, I met up with JoeSpeaker , metsfan, A.J., Owen and Erin to go to the Dodgers-Pirates game. It was awesome, and the home team won. A.J. kicks ass -- he can talk your head off, and I loved listening to him.

I liked Dodger Stadium a lot. It was built in 1962, but it still looks nice and has a fun atmosphere. I had heard about the legendary beach balls that bounce around at the games. There was also a blow-up doll being hit around in the stands, which cracked me up. Metsfan is already talking about the World Series. The Mets are a great team, but it might be a little early to be thinking about late October.

I also saw the San Diego Padres lose to the Seattle Mariners on Sunday, and then the Anaheim Angels beat the Colorado Rockies in a thriller on Monday. Petco Park in San Diego is beautiful -- I've been to 13 MLB stadiums so far, and Petco is in my top four.

After the Padres game, I figured I couldn't pass up the opportunity to hit up one of the San Diego card rooms. So I hopped on the Internet and found that the Palomar was only four miles away from downtown, toward Escondito.

It's unlike any card room I've ever been to. The Palomar is a storefront on the side of El Cajon Boulevard -- a rare Sunday night light amid fast food restaurants and sleeping businesses. I guess when poker is legalized, there's no reason for the glitz of Vegas. All you need is card tables and dealers for people who want to waste away a few hours and maybe get lucky.

There were about six tables inside with four games running. There were two 1/2 no limit tables with a $100 buy-in, one 5/10 no limit table and one 3/6 limit game. Some guys in the corner were playing Pai Gow. The rake was $5. The people seemed a little down on their luck but generally friendly. I sat in the 1/2 no limit game. I didn't want to push my luck, especially after a long day where I had already had several drinks.

The game was friendly and fun. One old guy came over from the limit table and started playing like a maniac. Maybe that's how he thought no limit was supposed to be played, but he busted out in about 10 minutes. Another guy was talking about his spinal tap. One rounder wearing headphones liked to slow play every single hand, which made him easy to read. A Vietnamese woman to my right was smiling and having a good time.

I only picked up one decent hand, A9s, which I raised from middle position. I usually wouldn't play A9s from MP in an online game, but I felt I had a strong read on this table.

I got a few callers, and two 9s fell on the flop to give me trips. A shorter stack pushed all in after I made a smallish bet, and he turned over J9 for a lower three of the kind. I cashed out shortly afterward for a $19 profit. Good enough for me.

I can't wait for the Vegas trip in two weeks!

Aloha from the Hustler!

I got in to Cali this morning and had a couple of hours to kill, so I knew I had to hit a card room while I had the chance.

I sat in at a 2/5 no limit game at the Hustler, which I don't like quite as much as the Commerce, but it's still decent. The game was filled with loose-passive players who limped into a lot of pots and avoided confrontations -- my favorite kind of table.

I won an early hand with Aces, then lost a pot when I bet with pocket 88 on a raggy looking board.

Later, I called a short stack who pushed all in with an A on the board when I had AK, but unfortunately he hit his Q on the turn for two pair, KQ. Then I got close to even by bluffing with a suited hammer.

This guy who looked like an exhausted biker was getting killed directly to my right. He kept whining about how his Aces and Kings never held up, but I didn't once see him raise during the whole session.

In one hand, I limped in a multiway pot with ATs. I picked up two of my suit on a paired flop, called a min bet, and then hit an Ace on the turn. The river gave me the A-high flush, and I made some money from a guy who made his straight and another guy who called my large bet but didn't show what he had.

The whiny biker had KK again.

I was up $207 after two hours, so that was a good start to my yearly baseball trip!

I'll see a Dodgers game today, a Padres game tomorrow and an Angels game on Monday with a couple of friends and select poker bloggers. I'll be sure to post photos later on!

Mahalo

I'm so thankful for all the fish.

The poker boom is still going on, and who knows when it will end. I'm damn lucky that the Internet and poker came together at a time in my life where I'm able to take full advantage of it.

I haven't been playing online poker long -- only a little over two years -- but the games are still almost as good as I thought they were when I first started. It's easy to find donkeys. Fish litter the tables. There's dead money everywhere.

I can pull up a random 2/4 no limit table and have a better-than-even-chance that the first seat I sit in, I'll have some gamblers to my right who are dying to share their stacks.

I'm not a great player. But I'm convinced that a tight, aggressive player who has the ability to lay down hands when he knows he's beat can make a good earn. Rakeback and an endless stream of poker and blackjack bonuses keep padding the bankroll to the tune of hundreds of dollars a month.

I know this won't last forever. Hell, Congress could vote to make Internet poker illegal, and I don't know what we'd do then. I guess we'd be shit out of luck.

I'm going to enjoy it while it lasts. Maybe it will last a long time.

Fish must be nocturnal ...

Because these tables just get better the later I stay up. It's about 11:30 p.m. here, which means it's 5:30 a.m. on the East Coast. Maybe all these people still awake are the ones trying to get even or sleep-deprived.

I made one of the worst moves I can remember last night. It was terrible. I won't go into the gory details because I'm too embarrassed, but let's just say that I pushed all in with a low pocket pair on the flop against a set. Woops.

I thought at the time that I had good reason for what I was doing because I had extensive notes on my opponent. I made a read that this was the kind of situation he was bluffing at repeatedly, and I decided my pocket pair had a better than even chance of winning the hand.

Of course, this play led me to question myself and my seemingly awful play. Where did I go wrong?

Obviously, my read was wrong.

But I don't think I was incorrect in trusting my analysis of the hand. Unfortunately, that analysis was flawed.

I made a snap judgment based on my read without fully considering that my read was based on a small sample size. I didn't account enough for the chance that my read was incorrect.

I relied on what I thought my opponent didn't have rather than what I thought was the range of hands he could have had. Bush league. Whatever.

Ach. I'm ready to sleep, but if there were ever a time for toothpicks to prop my eyes open and keep me at the table, this is it. I'll give these tables a few more minutes...

Blackjack Disco

About a year ago, before I started playing any blackjack, it looked like the bonus scene was dying. All the major poker sites were cutting back on their monthly bonuses except for Absolute Poker, which I've always found to be a chore to play at.

Little did I know that the blackjack sites were giving away lots of free money.

And they still are today.

This month, I've played bonuses at 32red, Linesmaker, Superbook, Betsson, Planetluck, Aceclub, Intercasino, William Hill and Littlewoods. And that's just the start to all the bonuses that are currently available.

One benefit I have now is that my bankroll is larger than it was when I started playing blackjack bonuses last fall, making it more comfortable for me to make larger wagers and more quickly clear the workthru requirement of each bonus. Betting more money on each turn of the card raises your variance for sure, but it doesn't decrease the real value of the bonus at all.

Anyways, I always recommend the blackjack bonuses. Some of these sites offer bonuses on a monthly basis, but most of them are one-time sign-up bonuses.

Some notes:

_Daniel mentioned to me that he heard the IGM-Pay bonuses (20 percent up to $100 with a 3X deposit+bonus workthru) would stop being offered at the end of this month. These bonuses apply to Starluck, Planetluck and Aceclub casinos. I had to talk to customer support each time to get them to credit me with the IGM-Pay bonus, but they didn't hesitate to do so.

_Daniel also found a cool blackjack site that lists strategy charts for each casino. It's called Casinodave.com. It also has a lot of other useful info.

_Scurvy deserves credit for getting me into blackjack bonuses to start with. He has published "A Beginner's Guide to Casino Bonuses" as well as a more recent list of cashable blackjack bonuses. One thing to note is that some of these bonuses have high workthru requirements that severely cut into their EV. I like the bonuses that have a higher upside, and I probably won't bother with some of the sites that require wagers totalling $14,000 for a $100 bonus (for example).

Harrington, Vol. 1

I know I'm probably the last person in the world to read "Harrington on Hold 'em, Vol. 1," but I'll weigh in anyway.

I liked the style it was written in and the practical advice given. The hand examples are the most valuable part of the book. They're well-illustrated and easy to understand, and they convey general principles in a game where everything seems to depend on the situation.

A few of the details struck me as odd.

I don't know what to make of his occasional probe bets. Harrington suggests tossing out bets of about 1/3 of the pot every once in a while as bluffs to try and pick up the pot with minimal expense. Perhaps this move is more effective in live tournaments, but it seems to me that underbets in online tournaments are rarely successful. I prefer to bet 1/2 of the pot size so that I don't appear so weak and have a greater chance at success.

I also might quibble (only a little) with some of Harrington's play on the flop when he has a big draw. In one example, Harrington flops a straight draw and a flush draw, but he's unsure how clean his outs are. He suggests calling the flop and seeing what the turn brings.

I almost always play my monster draws very hard on the flop unless I have a good reason not to. I feel like I give up value if I play my drawing hands too passively, and I like to get all in when I have such a potentially strong hand. That gives me two streets to hit one of my 15 outs by the end, which is usually good enough for at around 50 percent equity. But of course that's entirely situational.

Overall, I liked Vol. 1 a lot. It's hard to find good books on no limit strategy, and this one is the best I've read. I don't think it will make me a tournament master, but it will help my overall no limit game.

Vol. 2 is up next.

Jopke

I'm sitting here, a little tipsy after a few drinks, playing a 2/4 no limit game because I'm an idiot who couldn't find an acceptable sit-n-go despite my state of mind.

And I'm telling myself, "I'll just double up once and then sit out. Just once is all I need."

So when the 58 percent maniac raises to $20 preflop and I have 55 one off the button, what do I do? I call and intend to raise the flop on a bluff unless it's a very scary flop.

The flop comes 7 high ... with a 5 on it! I hit big. I called the $40 flop bet.

Then on the turn, some weird rag comes, the donkey bets, I raise, and he goes all in. I call his turned straight, which he made with 76o.

I start yelling, "Pair the board! Pair the board! Pair the board!"

Then the river brings that perfect card: the 6 of clubs to pair the board, give me a boat and crush his straight for a $500 profit. Hell yeah.

That's just how I've been rolling.

I want to remember this -- what it's like to be making good money when I'm playing well and getting lucky when I happen to be behind. (Fortunately, I thought of most of what I was going to write before I went to the bar.)

The main thing is that I'm taking more notes than I ever have before, and I'm listening to my instincts because they feel right. I'm not deluding myself when I feel like I can read my opponents' hands; I'm right a high percentage of the time, and I'm not getting sucked out on either.

Here's what I'm doing differently:

_As mentioned, I'm taking more notes. I'm trying to put a note on someone every hand if possible.

_I'm keeping track of all the action from start to finish.

_I'm being patient.

_I'm only playing two or three tables at a time.

_I'm thinking as I'm playing and applying my reads properly.

I know good runs never last forever, but I'm going to live it up while it does.

Sets

For the most part, I don't fear sets. I don't worry about them; I don't want to think about them. If someone has a set, then so be it. I'll make more money overall by playing strongly against the possible hands I can see than the imagined hands I can't.

There's only one problem with my reasoning -- it's a bit naive. I think it's a good strategy in many games, especially when playing against unpredictable players that like to run a lot of weird bluffs or nonsensical all-ins.

But to entirely discount the possibility that your opponent holds a set undermines your ability to read his hand. You can't put your opponent on an accurate hand range unless you consider the chance that he does hold that perfect pocket pair to bust your Aces in the hole.

The probability that anyone holds a set in any given hand is relatively small. That said, I believe it's possible to anticipate when you're beat based on betting patterns and reads. An obvious example is when you hold AK with an A on the flop vs. a very passive player who suddenly raises and re-raises. He might have connected his low pocket pair with the rags on the flop.

There is more danger in overestimating the chance that you're up against a set than underestimating it.

But ignoring the feasibility of a set entirely is thoughtless, -EV poker.

Flamingo

I arrived in Vegas with the crew last July, having recently returned to the States and ready to gamble.

I sat in a no limit game at the Flamingo. I was probably a bit too eager to get some hands in. It was a $300 buy-in game, and I had come to play.

After almost a round, I raised prelop with AQ. It was folded around to the big blind -- A calm, kind of talkative guy who I had pegged as a gambler. He called.

The flop came Axx. No draws.

He checked to me, I bet, he put in a check-raise. I thought for about three seconds before pushing all in.

"I have to call," he said, turning over AK.

The turn brought a King to add insult to injury, and I was out before I had barely started.

The guy reached his hand out and shook mine.

"Nice hand," he said. "Just a little too aggressive."

I wasn't sure if he was mocking me or not, but I was getting the hell out of there. I hate the Flamingo. It's like playing at some ratty third-rate online site with crappy software.

I was pretty tilty, so there was only one thing to do -- go to the 2/4 limit game at the Sahara and gamble it up!

I was thinking about this hand because I felt so fishy about it. I didn't think it through, and it should have been obvious that many players will cold-call AK in the big blind when facing an UTG raise. I assumed at the time that he would have re-raised.

I've improved my game tremendously since then, and I'm struck by how many little things there are to consider. But each of them can be taken one at a time, and most decisions can be made with plenty of time to spare.

My game is getting better because I'm thinking harder about what I'm doing before I act. I'm not mindlessly 10-tabling while waiting for the nuts. I'm not ramming AK all-in unless I have a good reason to do so. I'm not playing AA like a kamikaze pilot going for bust.

If I had it to do over again, there's no way I would make the same mistake of running my AQ into AK like that. It's a slow process, but little by little, the percentage points of EV are adding up.

Chicken or feathers?

Isn't this always the way it seems to go?

The moment I'm ready to start bitching about every river suckout or invisible set, I suddenly start to run good again. Either I should start bitching sooner, or I need to not complain at all.

I try to be patient, but the beats still get to me! Whatever, whatever.

I started out today losing $200 on blackjack bonuses after a brutal run last night on Party Poker and World Sports Exchange. It was going to be another beginning of another losing run.

But then things started to turn around. I didn't change anything about my game; I wasn't in a better mindset or concentrating harder. Luck just decided it was my turn to win today.

I flopped a boat and let a guy catch a runner-runner flush. Double. I had AA vs. KK. Double. I hit a set. Double.

In all, I doubled up about five times today -- nearly entirely erasing the futility of the previous two weeks.

If there's one sin I'm more guilty of than any other in poker, it's that I have no faith that bad runs will end, or that I haven't completely forgotten how to play the game. I always worry that I'll turn out like Steve Blass, a baseball player made famous because he inexplicably lost all ability to throw a strike. Nobody knows exactly what went wrong -- he just lost it.

I haven't forgotten how to play. I'm still learning, but I know what I'm doing out there.

Surfing before work

Mama never told me there were so many fish at 2/4 no limit.

I never would have thought there are so many players who don't know what they're doing. In general, it seems looser and more aggressive than many lower limit games, but those are the only real differences. There are plenty of donks.

I only moved up a couple of days ago, after I decided that I really should try to play higher no limit games. It's just a natural. Despite my obsession with limit over the last year and a half, no limit has always been my best game. I don't know what's wrong with me -- I should have done this a lot sooner.

To start, I hit a bad run where KK ran into a five-outer on the river, and fortunately it got checked through. Then I lost with a boat vs. quads, and I missed out on a $1,100 pot.

But it was easy to get some of it back tonight. I can only think of one hand where I hit, but I was still able to value bet enough and fold when I was beat to make a little change.

Several other things probably contribute to my feeling that this game is fishy and that I'm playing well. I've been pretty strict with my game selection, I'm holding the tables down to two or three at a time, and I'm taking a shit ton of notes.

It really does help. Multitabling is all well and good, but there's no way I can play my best game 10-tabling. That's not to say it isn't profitable; it's just not as profitable as moving up in limits.

I've had a hell of a week.

Got drunk Friday night.

Hiked around Volcanoes National Park on the Big Island all day Saturday and Sunday.

Sat around Monday.

Went for a hike at Maunawili Falls on Tuesday.

Surfed before work today.

Hawaii rocks. Pictures coming up soon!

Bonuses Rule

I love the B2B sites.

My 600 euro TopRankedPoker bonus was just deposited into my account. With that bonus and a few others for another 100 euro, my total bonus earned from TopRankedPoker is $903.

And that's not including other profits from gameplay.

Hell yeah it was worth it, even if it took a little while to clear.

If it weren't for my bad play, I'd win every time

Thanks to scurvy and grinder for their comments on my limit post. There are plenty of reasons to bet when behind, but I think they're exaggerated and quickly devolve into Fancy Play Syndrome.

I find the string of posts on luck in poker to be pretty interesting. There's no doubt that poker has a ton of luck involved in the short run, and that skilled players always win in the long run.

The difficulty is that we don't know how long the long run lasts except in retrospect. Riding out the bad times while still playing well is one of the main things that separates long-term winners from career losers.

I beat Matt twice in StarCraft today, but he had a big handicap in that he was playing Terran, which is his worst race and my best race. If he's Zerg, I don't stand a chance.

I'm heading off to Volcanos National Park this weekend on the Big Island. It sounds like it'll be awesome. And then I'll have fresh pictures, in addition to the shots from Diamondhead that I haven't posted yet.

Good luck at the tables!

Slowly but surely

Must ... clear ... B2B bonuses ... 700 points to go on Best Poker ...