Wednesday, August 09, 2006

Tales of an overplayer, pt. 3

I found that folding link I was looking for.

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Party Poker ($6 no limit). Hand converted by Check Raised hand converter




Preflop (10 players): Hero is UTG with

HERO calls ($6.00).

3 folds.

MP3 calls ($6.00).

1 fold.

CO raises $30.00.

3 folds.

HERO calls ($24.00).


1 fold.



Flop (12.5 bets ($75) in pot, 2 players):



HERO checks.

CO bets $45.00.

HERO calls ($45.00).



Turn (27.5 bets ($165) in pot, 2 players):




HERO checks.

CO bets $100.00.

HERO calls ($100.00).



River (60.83 bets ($365) in pot, 2 players):




HERO checks.

CO bets $243.20.

HERO calls ($243.20).



Summary:





CO has a pair of Aces [ ]




HERO has Three of a kind, Aces [ ] and won $847.90 (70.66bb)




I wanted to induce the cutoff to bluff on the river simply because I thought it was more likely than not he was bluffing. His aggression figures were through the roof, but he only went to showdown about 9 percent of the time.

If I had bet out on the river, I would have won $243 less because my opponent would have folded.

It feels great when it works, but I would have felt like a big donkey if he had turned over AK or AQ.

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I wanted to look at some under the gun hands to see which ones cost me the most. My perception was that I had been overplaying high cards out of position.

My best utg hands over a smallish sample of 32,482 hands in my most recent PT database: AQo, AJs, 99, AKs, 66, AA, QQ

My worst utg hands are: KK, TT, KQs, JJ, 98s, KJs

It seems like my perception may be exactly wrong. If anything, unpaired high cards -- especially AKs through AJs -- earn me more money than premium pocket pairs when out of position.

Huh. I don't know what to make of that.

Maybe I'm not overplaying AK utg as much as I thought I was.

3 comments:

TripJax said...

Love the folding article you found.

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What a weird way that hand played out, btw. When you clicked the call button on the river, did you feel like the chips were going to be shipped your way, or did you feel like you were making a crying call? I wonder what the other guy thought. I guess he was just praying...

Mark said...

By the time I got to the river, I was worried that I wouldn't win the hand. But I decided to stick with my read, and I had already decided to call a river bet after I checked to induce the bluff.

Victor_Enriq said...

I understand the just call on the flop, although I would have raised to another opponent (after the reads, i'm clearer on your idea)

I thought the hand was going to be checked down at the river, good call.