Tuesday, September 16, 2008

HUJ12: Out of position, out of power

Video watched: Spaceman in a Cowbow Hat, ep. 1

I've noticed that I've been calling too much out of position postflop. In general, I want to be raising or folding when I don't have the button. That will somewhat help neutralize the positional advantage of the button, especially if I do a good job of balancing my bluffs and value bets.

Calling out of position defines my hand too clearly and puts me in a sticky spot as the hand develops.

This next hand is one where I misplayed it and got lucky on the river:

Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 2 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $400

Hero (BB): $505.50

Pre-Flop: 9 8 dealt to Hero (BB)
SB raises to $12, Hero raises to $40, SB calls $28

Flop: ($80) 7 4 6 (2 Players)
Hero bets $55, SB raises to $146, Hero calls $91

Turn: ($372) K (2 Players)
Hero bets $319.50 and is All-In, SB calls $214 and is All-In

River: ($800) 5 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $800 Pot ($0.50 Rake)
SB showed 6 7 (two pair, Sevens and Sixes) and LOST (-$400 NET)
Hero showed 9 8 (a straight, Nine high) and WON $799.50 (+$399.50 NET)

I ran this hand by my coach, and he suggested reraising the flop if I thought I had any fold equity, or simply folding my eight outs. Makes sense to me, although I'll have to work on folding my eight- or nine-out draws on the flop when appropriate.

1 comment:

Greylocks said...

You would likely need a lot of fold equity to justify moving in on the flop (the $280 pot is way too big at this point to reraise for less.)

You'll make your straight about 31% of the time, but you could tie or lose to redraws, so you don't figure to be that good. My rough rule of thumb is to figure 25%. That would make the EV of moving in and getting called about (214 + 280)(.25) - (235)(.75) = -$53.

To make up for this, you'd have to win the $280 pot outright, your fold equity would have to be 53/280 = 19%.

The above calculations aren't easy to do in realtime at the table, but they give you the basic idea of how to determine whether to move in with these kinds of hands. The point is that "any" pot equity might not be enough.