Sunday, August 31, 2008

HUJ2: Spewy

Well, that didn't go well.

I can't seem to catch a break in the heads-up games the last few days, and I find myself a little bit lost because I don't know what I'm doing wrong. I mean, obviously I'm getting my chips in bad, but that's only a reflection of an underlying judgment problem.

Maybe I should stick to one table at a time (rather than two)? Maybe I need to be more patient, even when it feels like overaggro players will run over me? Maybe I tilt more than I realize, especially in the couple of minutes immediately following a bad beat? Or maybe I'm just running bad, although I have at least five hand histories I could post where I spew off chips in moronic ways.

I'll post one of them, which is among the worst of the bunch.

I've been playing more 2/4 and 3/6 HU since this bad streak started. The downswing began in earnest when I tried to take a shot at 10/20 HU. I got it in good with QJ and a flush draw vs. 86 and a flush draw, but of course the villain rivered his 8. Then this hand came up, which just isn't good at all:

Full Tilt Poker, $10/$20 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 2 Players - Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $2,649.50

SB: $4,445.25

Pre-Flop: 7 8 dealt to Hero (BB)
SB raises to $60, Hero raises to $200, SB calls $140

Flop: ($400) J 4 4 (2 Players)
Hero bets $250, SB calls $250

Turn: ($900) 8 (2 Players)

Hero checks, SB bets $600, Hero raises to $2,199.50 and is All-In, SB calls $1,599.50

River: ($5,299) 4 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $5,299 Pot ($0.50 Rake)
Hero showed 7 8 (a full house, Fours full of Eights) and LOST (-$2,649.50 NET)
SB showed J A (a full house, Fours full of Jacks) and WON $5,298.50 (+$2,649 NET)

My thinking was that only a strong Jack could call my turn check-raise, and Jacks made up a small portion of his range. I won't try to rationalize my play, but I would like to analyze it with PokerStove:

I'm guessing my opponent's 3-bet calling range looks something like this: JJ-22,AQs-ATs,KTs+,QTs+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,AQo-AJo,KQo,QJo,JTo

If we assume that he'll call my turn all-in check-raise with all his Jacks or better, he's calling with about 43 percent of his range and folding 57 percent of his range. I didn't know these numbers, but I thought a naked bluff may have enough equity to be profitable because I would win the pot slightly more than half the time. (.57)(1500) + (.43)(-2200)=-$91

I think it's safe to say I poorly estimated both his range and the value of my bluff.


spritpot said...

I don't hate your play with 87. How'd you get 43% for the fold equity there? How likely do you think he is to be floating you with all his 67s type hands? I think you get a ton of folds from just total air.


Gnome said...

My figures were rough estimates. I'd have to look back at my original math, but basically the 43 percent was the portion of his range (mostly Jx hands) that would call. I agree that the number may be lower in reality.
One problem I have with my play in this kind of hand is that it allows my opponent to play very well against me. He's calling with most hands that beat me and folding with most that don't.

spritpot said...

yes BUT if your hand is good, it's vulnerable, and check/calling a random river, or a scary river, will be gross. You get better 8s to fold too.