Cashout Problems?

If you're having problems cashing out your poker money, just use the Bank Wire option.

While Bank Wire may not be available to everyone, I made a cashout request Sunday morning and found the money in my bank Wednesday morning.

A previous cashout by check failed last week, but I was credited $200 for my trouble. Bank Wire was an easy solution.

Don't panic.

Web's Poker Winners Face Delays in Collecting

U.S. Deals Blow to Online-Poker Players

My parents' take on "60 Minutes"

My conservative parents and I talk about online poker every now and then, so I wasn't surprised when they asked me if I had seen the "60 Minutes" report on the Absolute/Ultimate Bet cheating scandals.

I was eager to hear their unsolicited impressions.

My parents, who are in their 60s and 70s, generally feel suspicious of online gambling, but they've become convinced by my results that poker is a game that can be beaten. They don't seem to have a moral problem with gambling, but they also recognize that some people can't control their gambling habits. They don't see the need for gambling in our society, but they believe the government shouldn't limit people's rights without good reason.

Their questions to me after viewing the "60 Minutes" piece were revealing:

What political party in Congress is opposing the regulation of online poker?

What's to stop another cheating problem like this from happening again?

Will they arrest Russ Hamilton?

How do you know online poker is safe?

My parents watched the "60 Minutes" segment, and they saw a problem that needs to be fixed. In their minds, it's obvious that something needs to be done.

P.S. 500th post!

In defense of Full Tilt

With so many poker players dogging on Full Tilt, you'd think it was a bad site to play on. That's not true.

1) Full Tilt has the best software on the Internet, and it isn't close. PokerStars is OK, but Bodog is awful. Every other site runs from unplayable to mediocre.

2) I've had fantastic response times on cashouts, although I understand some people haven't been so lucky with e-transfers. I've cashed out by check five times this year, and I've never had to wait more than a week for my check to travel across the ocean to my mailbox here in Hawaii. My most recent cashout was Wednesday, and the check arrived Friday. That's a fantastic response time.

3) There are many cash games to choose from at the limits I currently play (from 2/4 heads-up to 5/10). I'm able to find fishy games almost every time I log in these days.

4) Full Tilt recently offered rakeback to many players who have been begging for it for years.

That said, Full Tilt has a significant and glaring weakness in customer support.

The site insists on doing business exclusively by e-mail, and they won't permit their customers to ever call them by phone. I've never had a problem with their e-mail support, although I've heard horror stories about their support personnel being unresponsive. Regular poker players pay large sums of rake, and they deserve to be able to talk to a real person when their money is on the line.

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Ultimate Bet released inadequate conclusions of its investigation into cheating on the site at high limits. The public still doesn't know the name or position of the perpetrator, how this kind of obvious cheating could be allowed to happen for so long or whether there will be any sanctions from the site's regulatory body, the Kahnawake Gaming Commission.

You're a fool if you ever play on UB or Absolute Poker again.

UB and Absolute Cheating, and more PokerTracker

Superusers and Silence: How UltimateBet let players get cheated for millions. Check it out.

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One cool feature of PokerTracker3 is its ability to generate custom reports based on a variety of statistics.

So far there are five custom reports posted in the PokerTrack repository: Flopped Sets, Big Cards Hit Flop, Pocket Pair Hit Flop, Player Performance Summary and Hands Report-Game Notes Replacement.

The Hands Report is the most practical tool because it allows you to easily review your best and worst hands -- something I had immediately noticed was missing from the new PT3.

The other stats are less useful but more fun, especially Hit Flop With Pair because you can see whether you're connecting with the flop as much as you should on average.

Over 142,527 hands in this database, here's what my Hit Flop With Pair stats look like.

Hand One In
AA 8.7
KK 7.3
QQ 9.0
JJ 6.3
TT 6.4
99 7.8
88 9.8
77 7.5
66 8.2
55 8.2
44 7.5
33 7.9
22 6.6

You flop at least a set one in 8.5 times on average, so you can see that 10 out of 13 pocket pairs are hitting more often than they should for me. I run so good.

In the news: Skill vs. Luck, and FT amends CardRunners deal

Ryverrat linked to this study that purports to show that poker is a game of skill rather than a game of luck.

While it's obvious to me that poker is a game of skill, this study's premise is inherently flawed.

The study incorrectly presumes that poker is a game of skill because players' results improve after you teach them some of the strategy of the game. In a game of luck, no amount of instruction would make a player better.

There's one big problem with the study: blackjack.

Blackjack is another game in which instruction can improve your chances of winning, but I don't believe that makes it a game of skill because it's very hard to win in the long run when playing at a disadvantage to the house.

Can a game in which you can't win be considered a game of skill? I don't think so.

Studies need to do a better job of defining what constitutes a "game of skill." I would argue that games of skill must not give an inherent advantage to any of the players.

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It appears the mini-controversy over CardRunners pros being given temporary screennames while making videos has blown over after Full Tilt made some adjustments to its plan.

Many players were concerned that pros were being given an unfair exemption to the "one screenname per player" rule that could help them take advantage of opponents who didn't know they were up against a pro.

From Full Tilt's 2+2 update:

1. You recently signed a deal with CR that has been the point of some debate.

- That's a very kind way of phrasing the situation, thanks.

After reviewing the volumes of feedback in threads, in person, and via email on our proposed solution, and a number of high level meetings on the subject, we have revised our plan with regards to CardRunners. Before getting to the details, I'd like to thank everyone who gave their input (especially those that gave it a lot of thought themselves and didn't just post knee-jerk reactions) and let you know that we take all of the issues raised very seriously. For the record, I still believe our original plan was ethically sound, and I know we were (and still are) just trying to do the right thing for both our customers and our business relationships.

With that in mind, here is the new and hopefully improved plan for how certain educational videos will be created on Full Tilt:

• The next big software update (still over a month away) will include a backend feature that allows us to create "Educational" ("EDU") tables. When a player sits down at the table, they will see a popup explaining that at any time they could be playing against an instructor and might be recorded for the purposes of educational videos. They will need to accept these terms before sitting and playing. These tables will be marked in the lobby with the "EDU" tag in the table name.
• Instructors (with the express consent of Full Tilt) will be able to request a screen name and red status change for the duration of a video. This change of status and "temporary screen name" will only last for the duration of their educational session, and immediately after the session the instructor's account will be changed back to the "true" screen name and status. The modification of account name and status can only be done by our security department, and instructor play will be carefully monitored during the session.
• When using a name other than their normal "red" name, they will only be allowed to play at these new Educational tables.
• All players at the Educational tables who participate in a session with the instructor (whether or not the video is eventually used) will receive a bonus. The bonus will scale based on the stakes they are playing, and be offered to any player who plays at least one hand during the session. The amounts are still being finalized, and will be detailed from the popup in the screen when a player sits down. Examples might look something like a $50 bonus at $1/$2 and a $250 bonus at $5/$10. This will be the only form of compensation given to players at these tables.
• There will not be Educational tables at limits higher than $5/$10 NL.

We feel that the above will enable instructional content to be recorded in a realistic playing environment, and offer players the choice to participate in these educational videos.

Poker Traffic and Short Stacks

Traffic Growth at Poker Sites.

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I've always thought that there was no EV difference between playing a short stack and deep stack. But this post seems to argue that shortstack play results in higher winrates. I'm not sure if I believe it. There are some winning shortstack players, and playing a shortstack style has its merits.

Still, I don't believe there's an inherent advantage to playing a short stack instead of a deeper one. It's just different.

Absolute Outcry

The Absolute Poker cheating scandal is awful.

It's bad for U.S. legalization prospects, for those who got cheated and for the reputation of the online game among the general public. (See Lou Krieger's recent and previous posts for more information.)

I'm all for boycotting Absolute Poker, and it pisses me off that people who should know better are still playing there.

Why would anyone ever consider playing at a site where there was so much evidence of cheating by high-ranking officials within the company who used multiple handles to win major tournaments? Why would you feel like your money is safe in a site that got a slap on the wrist by its shady regulatory body, the Kahnawake Gaming Commission? How can poker players be at all confident that this won't happen again?

People vote with their pocketbooks. Players still at Absolute are sending a message that they condone cheating. They won't get any sympathy from me if they lose all their money. Come on. This is probably the worst scandal in online poker's history, and Absolute hasn't to my knowledge shown a dropoff in players.

That said, I don't think a formal blog-organized boycott to generate media coverage and spark regulation will have the desired results.

Bringing broad attention to the matter (think ESPN and the TV news magazine shows) is more likely to result in calls for stricter government bans against online poker than in regulation. When people fearful of gambling hear about cheating, they won't be inclined to support legitimizing our game. It will only strengthen their resolve against it.

So please make an individual choice to never play at Absolute Poker ever again. A widespread outrage built on personal responsibility, ethics and education will get better results than calling attention to Internet poker's black eye.

Accountability

When I wanted to tilt someone attacking my play, I used to type "poker is easy" into the chat box. It gave the illusion that I didn't know what I was doing and I was just there to have a good time.

But there's also some truth to it. The games seem as beatable now as they've ever been, despite the UIGEA, the spread of poker knowledge and cries that the boom is over. As far as I can tell, the most significant difference in the online poker landscape is the consolidation trend within the industry discussed by BillRini.

Some people say the games are tougher, and maybe they are. But I don't see it, based on my experience playing hundreds of hands every day. It seems like the players per flop figures displayed in the Full Tilt lobby have never been higher.

Are the games really more difficult? Or is this a case of weaker players faulting external events for their shortcomings rather than taking personal responsibility for improving their own games?

Perhaps it's both: the games are tougher, but the strong players adapt and thrive.

"(Dan) Harrington says he returned to the felt only after he started watching poker on TV in 2003. 'I said, I remember how to play that no-limit hold'em, and I know how to play it better than they know how to play it,' he recalled. 'That's what got me out of retirement and got me playing again,'" according to a CardPlayer interview.

Taylor Caby also has seen players try to take advantage of him after he spends time away from the tables. He says in a video that opponents attempt moves on him, but he simply adjusts his strategy to counter them.

There's little doubt these guys and plenty more like them are doing just fine.

For me, the fear of tougher games held me back this year more than it should have. I lacked confidence, and I doubted whether I would still be able to kill the games once the effects of the UIGEA were felt at the tables.

I remember sitting in an airport all night long playing 2/4 games on PokerStars, just trying to grind out a profit without thinking about it. I spewed a lot of money trying to rebuild my roll on Full Tilt on autopilot. I chased bonuses instead of profits. I focused on attaining goals rather than figuring out how to reach them.

Even when I ran white hot in fall 2006, I didn't feel like I was doing anything special to deserve this kind of success.

It's time for me to acknowledge my poker competence as a necessary step toward continued improvement.

Do the fish still donate their stacks? Are the games still good? Is the poker boom going strong? Yes, yes and yes.

But my victories aren't due to circumstances. I'm not going to "blame" poker society for giving me a free ride toward earning these profits. I'm a solid player who can beat most any game I play in, and my results directly reflect the effort I've put into my improvement.

Poker is easy.

Poker Boom Stats

The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act was signed into law Oct. 13, 2006.

Peak cash players at U.S.-facing sites on Oct. 7, 2006 (from It's Always an Off Deuce and billrini):

Party Poker: 10263
Poker Stars: 8128
iPoker: 5927
Ongame: 4804
Microgaming: 3561
Full Tilt Poker: 3334
Paradise: 2917
Crypto: 2286
UB: 2013
Pacific: 1992
Bodog: 1763
IPN: 1707
Absolute: 1241
World Poker Exchange: 635

Total: 50,571

Peak cash players at U.S.-facing sites on Dec. 27, 2007 (from PokerScout.com):

PokerStars: 20386
Full Tilt Poker: 8605
UB: 2986
Absolute: 2287
Bodog: 2013
Microgaming: 1861
Cake: 1319
Merge Gaming: 472
World Poker Exchange: 134

Total: 40,063

Total including sites listed above that have since closed to U.S. players (Party Poker, iPoker, Ongame, Microgaming, Crypto, Pacific, IPN): 73,089

Comparison of peak cash players on current top three sites (PokerStars, Full Tilt and Party Poker) before UIGEA and today:

Oct. 7, 2006: 21,725
Dec. 27, 2007: 38,435

Note: Paradise Poker joined IPN (Boss Media) in February.

Housekeeping

I found Kick Ass Poker Blog's breakdown of the UIGEA regulations to be informative.

Check it out here (don't let the multipart format scare you):

Inside the UIGEA Regulations, Part I: Introduction and Background
Part 2: Implementation
Part 3: Deputizing the Banks
Part 4: Comments and Timing

So what we have here is a law that doesn't specifically mention poker, explicitly permits paper checks to be used, relies on banks for enforcement and is still many months away from going into effect, more than a year after it was originally passed as part of a port security bill. Great.

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I realized the other day that I've been overestimating the probability that two unpaired cards will flop a pair. I think the math should look like this: 1 - (44/50 * 43/49 * 42/48) = 32.4 percent.

Or it's easier just to look it up on the Internet at a site like Planet Stacked that has all kinds of odds listed.

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Lee Jones says he'll bet $10,000 with Daniel Negreanu that you shouldn't be able to show one card to an opponent when two people are in a tournament hand heads up.

But he doesn't explain his reasoning. I don't get it. Why shouldn't you be allowed to show a card? Someone fill me in please.

PokerWorks

It's unfortunate that several bloggers had to leave PokerWorks for various reasons, including the UIGEA and problems with Google. It sounds like it was a difficult business decision.

I liked having all these engaging writers and poker players together at one site. But at least they will keep writing at their original homes, where they may feel more comfortable and able to write with a stronger voice.

I wrote a dumb post questioning what was going on with PokerWorks yesterday, but I deleted it shortly afterward when I saw Linda had posted an explanation.

I look forward to reading Change100, Amy, Maudie and Joe Speaker at their original blogs. And I'll still enjoy reading CC and Grubby on PokerWorks. Keep it up!

Poker is Good for You

This essay was originally published in the September, 2007 issue of The Two Plus Two Internet Magazine at www.twoplustwo.com. View the original copy by clicking here.

POKER IS GOOD FOR YOU

by David Sklansky & Alan N. Schoonmaker, Ph.D.

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Many people have argued that poker should be considered differently from gambling in general. This argument has been made in discussions of legalization and related topics. Their argument is usually that poker is a skill game, while other gambling games are much less dependent upon skill.

We agree, but believe that they have not gone far enough in explaining many of poker's unique attributes. Poker does not just require skill. It demands and develops many skills and personal qualities which are essential for making all types of decisions, such as choosing a career, investing money, performing a job, and buying a house.¹

POKER IS A GREAT TEACHER.

Research clearly proves that people tend to repeat rewarded actions and to discontinue punished ones. Poker teaches by rewarding desirable actions such as thinking logically and understanding other people and by punishing undesirable ones such as ignoring the odds and acting impulsively.² Other learning principles also apply to poker.

Learning Depends Upon Feedback.

Rewards and punishments are valuable feedback. The faster and clearer the feedback is, the more rapidly you will learn. Unfortunately, for learning many desirable qualities the feedback cycle is slow or unclear. For example, if you make a mistake with an important customer, you may never know why you lost his business. At the poker table you often get much quicker feedback.

Until fairly recently, most people learned how to play poker primarily from trial and error. Over the past few decades a rapidly expanding body of books, videotapes, DVDs, classes, and coaches has helped millions of players to speed up the learning curve, but there is no substitute for experience. You have to make good and bad plays and get rewarded and punished to learn poker's most important lessons.

The More Frequently You Get Feedback, The Faster You Will Learn.

Most important real life decisions are made infrequently, and some of them - such as choosing a career - may be made only once. Poker players make and get feedback on hundreds of decisions every session, which greatly accelerates the learning process.

Lessons Learned In One Situation Often Generalize To Other Situations.

If poker's lessons applied only to how to play games, we would not have written this article. But its lessons apply to virtually every aspect of life. For example, if you are impatient or illogical or can't analyze risks and rewards, you will lose at poker, and you will make many mistakes in business and personal relationships. If poker teaches you how to control your emotions, you will be much more effective almost everywhere.

Young People Generally Learn More Quickly Than Older Ones.

Poker's enemies often insist that they are protecting young people from developing bad habits, but they are really preventing them from learning good ones. Young people love to gamble, sometimes for money, often for much more "things" such as grades, pregnancy, and even their lives.

They get a kick from taking chances, and some of their gambles are just, plain stupid. They risk dying or becoming crippled by crazy stunts on roller skates, bicycles, and snowboards. They get pregnant or AIDS by taking easily avoided sexual risks. It is as impossible to prevent young people from "gambling" (in its broadest sense) as it is to prevent them from experimenting sexually.

Life is intrinsically risky, and learning how to handle those risks is an important part of growing up. Poker teaches you to think of risks and rewards before acting. If it taught nothing else, poker would prevent some young people from making terrible mistakes. More generally, most of poker's lessons will help young people to make critically important decisions.

POKER IMPROVES YOUR STUDY HABITS.

Because you want to be respected, you and nearly everyone else naturally develop high status qualities and neglect low status ones. Unfortunately, status among Americans - especially young ones - is based primarily on physical attractiveness and athletic ability. The highest status people, the ones others envy and want to date, are physically attractive and good at games such as football, basketball, and soccer. Of course, the good looking, athletic children will probably end up working for the more studious ones, but they may not learn that lesson until it is too late.

American students score abysmally on tests of math, science, and verbal skills partly because so many of them think that study is unimportant. They are not stupider than Europeans, Asians, and South Americans, but they are taught from birth that they will be rewarded for looking good and playing athletic games well.

Worse yet, they learn that being studious is often punished. Their parents may be delighted when they get good grades, but young people care immensely about their peers' opinions. Good students are called "nerds" and "geeks."

This anti-intellectualism continues indefinitely. Americans reward good looks and athletic ability far more than studiousness. Models, actors, and athletes get paid several times as much and have much higher status than scientists, teachers, and scholars.

Young people resist studying math, psychology, logic, risk-reward analysis, probability theory, and many other subjects they will need as adults because these subjects seem unrelated to their lives. They don't see how learning them matters in the competitions they care about, the ones for status, popularity, and dates. Since people rarely study these subjects after graduation, many Americans never learn them.

Poker quickly teaches them the value of these subjects. The "nerds" who study poker and subjects such as math, logic, and psychology crush their more attractive and athletic opponents. They even beat smarter people who are too lazy or complacent to study. Winning increases their status and confidence and makes them much more likely to get dates and influence their peers. Poker doesn't just develop study habits and other important qualities; it also increases the value people place on them.

POKER DEVELOPS YOUR MATH SKILLS.

Americans are terrible at math. Our students get abysmal scores on math tests, and most people don't even try to learn math after leaving school. Their weaknesses remain uncorrected forever.

Many people are not just bad at math; they don't even want to get better. They essentially say, "Who needs it?" When they play poker, they quickly learn that they need it. The winners understand and apply it, while the losers either don't try or can't perform the necessary calculations. After their children started playing poker, many parents have exclaimed, "I'm amazed. He actually wants to study math."

POKER DEVELOPS YOUR LOGICAL THINKING.

Many authorities are appalled by Americans' contempt for logic. Instead of thinking logically, too many of us make poor assumptions, rely on intuition, or jump to emotionally-based conclusions.

Poker teaches you to respect and apply logic because it is a series of puzzles. Since you don't know the other players' cards, you need logic to help you to figure out what they have, and then more logic to decide how to use that information well. The same general approach that works in poker will help you to make much more important decisions.

POKER DEVELOPS YOUR CONCENTRATION.

The first step toward solving poker or real life problems is acquiring the right information. Without it you will certainly make costly mistakes. Poker develops information-gathering qualities, especially concentration. Every poker player has missed signals, including quite obvious ones, made mistakes, and then berated himself, "How could I be so stupid?" We can't think of a more effective way to develop concentration.

POKER DEVELOPS YOUR PATIENCE.

Americans are notoriously impatient, which damages many aspects of our lives. We owe trillions of dollars because we buy things on credit instead of waiting until we can pay for them. Our businesses overemphasize short-term results and lose market share to more patient foreign competitors.

Poker develops patience in the most powerful possible way. If you wait patiently for the right situation, you will certainly beat the impatient people who play too many hands. In fact, for most players poker's first lesson is "Be Patient."

POKER DEVELOPS YOUR DISCIPLINE.

Many people lack discipline. They yield to their impulses, including quite destructive ones. Poker develops discipline by rewarding it highly. Virtually all winning players are extremely disciplined.

Their discipline affects everything they do. They fold hands they are tempted to play. They resist the urge to challenge tough players. They avoid distractions, even pleasant ones like chatting with friends or sexually attractive strangers. They don't criticize bad players whose mistakes cost them money. They control their emotions. They have the self-control to do the necessary, but unpleasant things that most people won't do.

Television has created a ridiculously inaccurate image of poker. After seeing famous players screaming and trash-talking, viewers naturally assume that such antics are normal. They are utterly mistaken. Television directors show these outbursts for "dramatic value," and a few players act stupidly to get on TV. You will see more outbursts in a half hour of television than in a month in a card room. Please remember that controlled people are often called "poker faced."

POKER TEACHES YOU TO FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM.

Impatience is not the only cause for short-sightedness. Learning research proves that immediate rewards have much greater impact on people than delayed ones. For example, most American adults are overweight because the immediate pleasure of overeating is more powerful than its disastrous long-term effects such as heart attacks.

Poker players quickly learn that a bad play can have good results and vice versa, but that making decisions with positive, long-term expectation (EV) is the key to success. If you make enough negative EV plays, you must lose. If you make enough positive EV plays, you must win. It is just that simple.

If people thought more of the long term, some of our most serious problems would be solved or become less troublesome. Because of short-sightedness, millions of children drop out of school or get pregnant, and millions of adults neglect their health and finances.

POKER TEACHES YOU THAT FORGOING A PROFIT EQUALS TAKING A LOSS (AND VICE VERSA).

Economists call lost profits "opportunity costs" and they have written extensively about them. Unfortunately, most people haven't read their works, and, if they did, they probably wouldn't agree. They would much rather pass up a chance to make a dollar than risk losing one. They therefore miss many profitable opportunities.

Poker teaches you that lost profits are objectively the same as losses. For example, if the pot offers you 8-to1, and the odds against you are 5-to-1, you should call the bet. Not calling is the same as throwing away money by making a bad call when the odds are against you.

POKER DEVELOPS YOUR REALISM.

You and everyone else deny unpleasant realities about yourself, other people, and many other subjects. You believe what you want to believe. Poker develops realism in the cruelest, but most effective way. If you deny reality about yourself, the opposition, the cards, the odds, or almost anything else, you quickly pay for it.

Hundreds of times a night you must assess a complicated situation: your own and the other players' cards, what the others are going to do, the probability that various cards will come on later rounds, your position, and many other factors, especially your own and the other players' skill and playing style. If you are realistic, you win. If you deny reality, you lose.

POKER TEACHES YOU HOW ADJUST TO CHANGING SITUATIONS.

Most people don't ask themselves, "How is this situation different?" They just do whatever they have always done. Poker demands adjustments because the situation is always changing. One card can convert a worthless hand such as a four flush into an unbeatable one. The player holding the flush and all the opponents should adjust immediately. The player with the winning hand should do whatever will produce the most profit, and the others should cut their losses.

Other things are changing as well. One hand after being in the small blind, the worst position, you have the button, the best position. Every time someone quits and is replaced by a different type of player, the game changes. Every time someone surprises you by folding, checking, betting, or raising you should re-evaluate the situation and adjust to the new information.

Adjusting to real life changes has always been necessary, but it is has become much more important because the pace of change has accelerated enormously. We now experience more changes every year than our ancestors encountered in decades. Technology, the economy, social and moral attitudes, and a host of other factors change so dramatically that Alvin Toffler: "coined the term 'future shock' to describe the shattering disorientation we induce in individuals by subjecting them to too much change in too short a time."³ He argued, "Change is avalanching upon our heads, and most people are grotesquely unprepared to cope with it."⁴ Poker can help you to cope with our constantly changing world.

POKER TEACHES YOU TO ADJUST TO DIVERSE PEOPLE.

Most people - especially younger ones - have little experience with diverse people. They live in relatively homogenous towns and neighborhoods and usually relate to people who are fairly similar to themselves.

In online and casino poker games, you have to play with whoever sits down. You must compete against very different kinds of people: aggressive and passive, friendly and nasty, educated and uneducated, quiet and talkative, intelligent and stupid, emotionally controlled and uncontrolled, and so on.

You therefore learn how to understand and adjust to people who think and act very differently from you. The faster you and better you do it, the better results you will get. Since you will certainly meet diverse people in more important situations, learning how to relate to them is extremely valuable.⁵

POKER TEACHES YOU TO AVOID RACIAL, SEXUAL AND OTHER PREJUDICES.

Prejudice is always wrong, but it is especially destructive at the poker table. It causes you to underestimate your opposition and make expensive errors. To play well, you should be "gender-blind, color-blind, and just-about-everything else-blind, because in the end, winning is based on merit."⁶

Poker provides an extremely "level playing field." In no other popular competition is everyone treated so equally. You can't play golf against Tiger Woods, but you can sit down at any poker table. You can play against anyone from a novice to a world class player, and you will all be treated as equals. If you get the cards and play them well, you will win, no matter who you are.

POKER TEACHES YOU HOW TO HANDLE LOSSES.

Many people can't cope with losses. A lost job, argument, or - God forbid -romantic relationship is a massive tragedy. They can't accept the loss and may even obsess over it. It takes over their lives, making them look backward rather than forward.

Poker teaches you how to cope with losses because they occur so frequently. You lose far more hands than you win, and losing sessions and losing streaks are just normal parts of the game. You also learn that trying to get even quickly is a prescription for disaster. You have to accept short-term losses and continue to play a solid, patient game. You can't be a winner - in poker or life - if you don't learn how to get over losses and move on.

POKER TEACHES YOU TO DEPERSONALIZE CONFLICT.

Many people take conflicts too personally. They may want to beat someone so badly that they "win the battle, but lose the war." Worse yet, if they lose, they may take it as a personal defeat and ache for revenge. Anyone who has seriously played games with painful physical contact (such as football, boxing, and soccer) is less likely to take conflict too personally. Getting hurt teaches some athletes that conflict is just part of the game and life. Alas, many people never learn that lesson.

Poker teaches you to depersonalize conflicts because it is based on impersonal conflict. The objective is to win each other's money, and everyone's money is the same. It doesn't matter whether you win or lose to Harry, Susan, or Bob. Everybody's chips have the same value, and everybody's money spends the same.

Poker quickly teaches you that being bluffed, sandbagged, outdrawn, and just plain outplayed are not personal challenges or insults. They are just parts of the game. Poker also teaches you that taking conflicts personally can be extremely expensive.

If you ache for revenge, you may act foolishly and lose a lot of money. Beating "your enemy" can become so important that you play cards you should fold, try hopeless bluffs, and take many other stupid, self-destructive actions. The Chinese have a wonderful saying, "If you set out for revenge, dig two graves: one for him, and one for you." Poker teaches that principle to every open-minded player.

POKER TEACHES YOU HOW TO PLAN.

Many people don't plan well. Instead of setting objectives and planning the steps to reach them, they react impulsively or habitually. Poker develops your planning ability for an extremely wide range of time periods:

• This betting round
• This entire hand
• This session
• This tournament
• This year
• Your entire poker career

Planning for all of these periods requires setting objectives and anticipating what others will do. For example, pocket aces are the best possible hand, and you hope to build a big pot with them. In early position in a loose-passive game, you should raise because your opponents will probably call. In a wildly aggressive game you should just call, expecting someone to raise, others to call, so that you can reraise.

Poker also teaches you to plan for the entire hand. You use chess-type thinking ("I'll do this, they will do that, and then I'll …"). You may sacrifice some profit on an early betting round to increase your profits for the entire hand.

You can also sacrifice immediate profits for longer-term gains. For example, you may overplay the first few hands to create a "Wild Gambler" image that will get you more action on later hands. Or you may be extremely tight at first to set up later bluffs. Poker teaches you to set clear goals, think of what others will do, plan the actions that will move you toward your goals, and always know why you are doing something.

Good planning requires thinking of multiple contingencies. You should do many "what, if?" analyses. If the next card is a spade, you will bet. If it pairs the board, and Joe bets, you will fold. If it seems innocuous and Harriet bets, you will raise. Most people don't consider nearly enough possibilities. When something unexpected happens, they have no idea what to do.

Planning in real life is so obviously valuable and so rarely done well that we don't need to give any examples. You know that you should do these "what if" analyses and plan your work, finances, and life in general, but that you probably don't plan well.

POKER TEACHES YOU HOW TO HANDLE DECEPTIVE PEOPLE.

Many people are easily deceived. Just look at those late night infomercials that promise you'll quickly get rich, become thin, or relieve all your aches and pains. The promoters wouldn't pay for them if naïve people didn't buy them, and they are only the tip of the iceberg. As Barnum put it, "There's a sucker born every minute."

Because poker players constantly try to bluff, sandbag, and generally deceive each other, you learn how to recognize when someone has a good hand, is on a draw to a good hand, or is flat out bluffing Those skills can help you to spot and react effectively to deceptive people everywhere. A lot of people want to deceive you, and you should learn how to protect yourself.

POKER TEACHES YOU HOW TO CHOOSE THE BEST "GAMES."

"Game" selection is critically important in both poker and life. Poker teaches you how to evaluate yourself, the competition, and the overall situation, and then pick the "games" that are best for you.

Serious poker players recognize that the main reason they win or lose is the difference between their abilities and those of the competition. If they are better than the competition, they win. If they are weaker, they lose.

A secondary consideration is the fit between their style and the game. Let's say that two poker players have equal abilities. Player A will beat a conservative game, but lose in an aggressive one, while Player B will have the opposite results. Obviously, they should choose different games.

Both factors affect your real life results. If you are less talented or have weaker credentials than your competitors, you should switch to a softer game. You should also select a game that fits your style. For example, you and a friend may have similar abilities and credentials, but different temperaments. Perhaps you should work in a large organization, but he should join a small company or start his own business.

Most people don't know how to evaluate themselves and how well they fit into various "games." So they make huge mistakes that they may not realize for many years. Just think of how many people have changed "games" in their thirties and forties. They finally realized, "I don't belong here."

POKER TEACHES YOU THE BENEFITS OF ACTING LAST.

If you act last, you have a huge edge. You know what your opponents have done before acting, but they acted without knowing what you will do. Position is so important that any good player would raise with some cards in last position that he would fold in early position.

Poker is an information-management game, and there are many similar games such as selling and negotiating. The primary rules of all these games are:

• Get as much information as possible.
• Give as little information as possible.

For example, when negotiating, you want the other person to go first to learn his position before expressing yours. Let's say you have to sell an unusual house quickly. A licensed appraiser has said that it is worth approximately $250,000, but that it is so unique that he can't put a precise value on it.

Before offering a price, you want to know how this potential buyer feels. He may love, hate, or be indifferent to its unique features. If he makes the first offer, you get some inkling of his feelings. He may even offer $275,000! Since he seems to love its uniqueness, try for an even higher price.

Job interviewers know the value of acting last. Most employment applications contain a question such as: "Approximate starting salary expected." If you answer, you have given the interviewer your position without knowing what he is willing to pay. Since you are unlikely to get more than you ask for, try to avoid making that first offer.

POKER TEACHES YOU TO FOCUS ON THE IMPORTANT SUBJECTS.

Focusing on unimportant subjects causes expensive mistakes at the poker table and in real life. Serious poker players know that all mistakes are not created equal. Trying too hard to avoid small mistakes can cause much bigger ones.

Overreacting to any opponent's small mistakes can cause the deadly mistake of underestimating him. For example, you may see that an opponent overplays a mediocre hand such as queen-jack offsuit. It's a mistake, but a relatively harmless one, especially because he will get that hand only a few times a night. If he plays the other hands well, don't conclude that he is a weak player.

Your own mistakes should also be analyzed, and some of them can be quite subtle, but very important. For example, you may be so intent on playing "properly" that you seem too serious for the weaker opponents who just want to have a good time. So they avoid you, which reduces your share of the money they give away.

Another error is taking a "by the book" approach that can cause strategic mistakes. For example, you could play your cards in a technically correct way, but almost never bluff. You would lose the profit you could gain from good bluffs, and your opponents will not give you much action on your good hands. The same principle applies to always playing hands the same way. The predictability costs you more than you gain by always being technically correct.

A business analogy would be running your organization so rigidly that all the ordinary decisions are made well, but:

• Your employees are not motivated to be creative when the usual routines won't work. In fact, they may fear being punished for violating procedures.
• Your organization can't respond effectively to the inevitable surprises.
• Your good employees quit.
• Your organization becomes a typical bureaucracy, filled with deadwood and unable to achieve its goals.

POKER TEACHES YOU HOW TO APPLY PROBABILITY THEORY.

If you are like most people, you don't think in terms of probabilities, or you do so very crudely. You think something:

• will happen
• won't happen
• probably will happen
• probably won't happen

You are unlikely to make finer distinctions such as between 30%, 20%, and 10% probabilities.

Poker teaches that these distinctions are important and develops your ability to calculate them. You learn that you should sometimes call a bet if you have a 30% probability of winning, but fold with a 20% probability. You also learn how to estimate probabilities quickly and accurately.

This neglected skill can be applied to many real life decisions. For example, if you have to fly to Los Angeles for a sales call or job interview, it may be worth the time and expense if the probability of success is 30%, but not if it's 20%. Hardly anyone thinks that way which causes many poor decisions.

POKER TEACHES YOU HOW TO CONDUCT RISK-REWARD ANALYSES.

These analyses are a more formal way to use probability theory. Since life is intrinsically risky, you probably can't win at poker or life without accurately assessing risks and rewards.

Risk-reward analysis is a form of cost-benefit analysis which also includes the probabilities of each possible result. Let's say that the pot is $100. You have a flush draw that you expect to win if you make it, but lose if you miss. It will cost you $20 to call the bet. The odds against making your flush are exactly 4-to-1. If you make it, you will win another $20 because you are sure your opponent will call one last bet. You are sure you cannot bluff. Should you call the $20 bet?

You will certainly lose more often than you will win, but the potential gains may outweigh the potential losses. Because we are concerned only with the long term, let's do it 100 times:

You will win $120 twenty times for a total win of	$2,400
You will lose $20 eighty times for a total loss of	-1,600
Your net gain for 100 times will be	$800
Your expected value for each call is	$8
You should obviously call the bet.

Poker players constantly do risk-reward analyses, and these analyses are often much more complicated. For example, in deciding whether to semi-bluff⁷, you should estimate the probabilities, gains and losses of:

• winning the pot immediately because your opponent(s) fold
• winning because you bet again on the next round and your opponent(s) fold
• winning because you catch the card you need to make the best hand
• losing because you get called and don't catch your card.

The math can get difficult, but advanced players learn how to make these analyses quickly and accurately.

The same sort of analysis should be done whenever you have a real life risky situation. Unfortunately, most people don't do it. They buy stocks or real estate, take a job, open a business, or take personal risks without identifying all the outcomes and estimating the probabilities that each will occur. So they make many bad decisions.

Poker is such an excellent teacher for risky decisions that Peter Lynch, former manager of The Magellan Fund and Vice Chairman of Fidelity, once said that a good way to become a better investor was to "Learn how to play poker."⁸

POKER TEACHES YOU TO PUT THINGS IN CONTEXT AND EVALUATE ALL VARIABLES.

People often ask poker experts, "How should I play this hand?" They are usually frustrated by the standard answer, "It depends on the situation." The expert then asks them about the other players, their own position, the size of the pot, the action on previous hands and betting rounds, and many other subjects. Most people don't want to hear, "It depends on the situation," and they definitely don't want to answer questions.

In fact, they usually can't answer them because they have not counted the pot, thought about the other players, and done all the other things that experts do. They want to know the two or three simple rules for playing a pair of aces, or a full house, or a flush draw, and the experts won't tell them because there aren't any simple rules.

If you play seriously, you will learn that the KISS formula (Keep It Short and Simple) does not apply to poker. More importantly, it does not apply to most significant real life decisions. It has become popular because people want to believe that life is much simpler than it really is. Poker teaches you to ask the same sorts of questions about investment, career, and other decisions that you ask at the poker table so that you make much better decisions.

POKER TEACHES YOU HOW TO "GET INTO PEOPLE'S HEADS."

Poker teaches you to understand and apply psychology because understanding others is absolutely essential. In fact, poker has often been called "a people game played with cards." If you don't understand the other players, you can't win.

We have already discussed psychological subjects such as avoiding prejudice and selecting the right games. We will end this long essay by briefly discussing poker's most important psychological lesson: teaching you what other people perceive, think, and want.

The first step is shifting your focus from yourself to them, and poker forces you to make that shift. If you focus on your own cards, you can't win because poker hands have only relative value. The important issue is not how good your cards are; it is how they compare to the other players' cards. A flush is a very good hand, but it loses to a bigger flush or any full house or better. So poker quickly teaches you to think of what other people have. It also teaches you to think about what they think you have. And even what they think you think they think.⁹

We and others have written extensively about these subjects, but space limitations allow us to give only a few examples. Good players always consider the other player when making any decision. With the same cards and situation, they would fold if Charley, a very conservative player, bets, but raise if Mary, a very aggressive player, bets.

Good players would also think about how their opponents think about each other. For example, if a perceptive opponent bets into someone whom he believes is very likely to call, he is probably not bluffing. If a good player reraises a maniac, he probably has a much weaker hand than if he reraised a tight opponent. Understanding his perceptions of these other players greatly improves your decisions when you are contesting a pot.

Understanding other people is vital in virtually every area of life. You can't have good personal relationships or succeed in business without being perceptive about people. Since its value in personal relationships is so obvious, we will discuss only two subjects, negotiating and investing.

"The absolutely essential step toward negotiating effectively is to shift your focus from your own position to their position. Unfortunately, most people focus on their own position. Their actions say, in effect, 'If I could just get them to understand MY facts and MY logic and MY needs, they would make the concessions I need.' The other side is saying exactly the same thing.

"They therefore have parallel monologues instead of a genuine dialogue. Both sides repeat themselves again and again, hoping to convince the other to accept their position. But eloquence is no substitute for understanding, and you cannot gain that understanding without shifting your focus and sincerely wanting to understand the other side."¹⁰

All good poker players know and apply David Sklansky's "Fundamental Theorem of Poker."¹¹ Less well known is his "Fundamental Theorem of Investing:"

"Before making any investment ... you must be able to explain why the other party is willing to take the other side of the deal... if you cannot come up with a good explanation, your buy, sell or bet is almost certainly not as good as you think."¹²

Unfortunately, most people don't seriously analyze the other party's reasons. Their attention is focused primarily on themselves, their economics, their analysis, and their reasons for buying or selling. If they thought about the other party's motives and perceptions, they might realize that they are making a disastrous mistake.

The principle is very clear. You should always determine as accurately as you can why the other party is willing to sell, buy, or do other business with you. If you don't understand his reasons, "all the statistics, income statements, balance sheet data, or analysts' recommendations mean little. There is still some reason they are taking your bet - and, if you don't know it, you don't like it."¹³

We could quote many other authorities on the value of understanding other people, but there is no need to do so. Instead, we will close with a quotation from one of the best selling books of all time: How To Win Friends And Influence People by Dale Carnegie: "If there is one secret of success, it lies in the ability to get the other person's point of view and see things from that person's angle as well as your own."¹⁴

Since you can't win at poker without seeing things from other people's angle, you will learn this valuable lesson. You will then become much better at winning friends, influencing people, and making decisions about virtually everything.

CONCLUSIONS

We have described many - but certainly not all - of the skills and personal qualities that poker develops. Most of poker's lessons are variations on one theme: Think carefully before you act. That principle applies everywhere, and far too many people ignore it.

The government's attempts to outlaw poker are based upon a misconception of its nature and value. It is not "just gambling," and it should not be subject to the same rules and penalties as other gambling games. Instead, the government should allow you to play poker in regulated and taxed places because poker is good for you and good for America.

SUMMARY OF POKER'S BENEFITS

Because this essay is so long, you may not want to reprint all of it. We believe that a good summary is simply a list of the headings. Please feel free to reprint as much or as little as you wish.

1. Poker Is A Great Teacher.
2. Poker Improves Your Study Habits.
3. Poker Develops Your Math Skills.
4. Poker Develops Your Logical Thinking.
5. Poker Develops Your Concentration.
6. Poker Develops Your Patience.
7. Poker Develops Your Discipline.
8. Poker Teaches You To Focus On The Long Term.
9. Poker Teaches You That Forgoing A Profit Equals Taking A Loss (And Vice Versa).
10. Poker Develops Your Realism.
11. Poker Teaches You To Adjust To Changing Situations.
12. Poker Teaches You To Adjust To Diverse People.
13. Poker Teaches You To Avoid Racial, Sexual And Other Prejudices.
14. Poker Teaches You How To Handle Losses.
15. Poker Teaches You To Depersonalize Conflict.
16. Poker Teaches You How To Plan.
17. Poker Teaches You How To Handle Deceptive People.
18. Poker Teaches You How To Choose The Best "Game."
19. Poker Teaches You The Benefits Of Acting Last.
20. Poker Teaches You To Focus On The Important Subjects.
21. Poker Teaches You How To Apply Probability Theory.
22. Poker Teaches You How To Conduct Risk-Reward Analyses.
23. Poker Teaches You To Put Things In Context And Evaluate All Variables.
24. Poker Teaches You How To "Get Into People's Heads."

¹ We assume, of course, that you will not become obsessed with poker or play for higher stakes than you can afford.

² These rewards and punishments may not be instantaneous. It may take a while for things to average out.

³ Future Shock, New York, Random House, 1970, Page 4

⁴ibid, page 14

⁵ Adjusting to varied players was the primary theme of Alan Schoonmaker's book, The Psychology of Poker, Henderson, NV, Two Plus Two Publishing, 2000.

⁶ Barbara Connors, "Poker Play" in Maryann Morrison's Women's Poker Night, New York, Kensington Publishing, 2007, p. 26.

⁷ "A semi-bluff is a bet with a hand which, if called, does not figure to be the best hand at the moment, but has a reasonable chance of outdrawing those hands that initially called it." David Sklansky, The Theory of Poker, p. 91.

⁸ "Ten lessons poker teaches great investors," by Christopher Graja, Bloomberg's Personal Finance, June, 2001, p. 56

⁹ See "Multiple level thinking" in David Sklansky and Ed Miller, No Limit Hold 'em: Theory And Practice, Henderson, NV, Two Plus Two Publishing, 2006, pp. 168-175.

¹⁰ Alan N. Schoonmaker, Negotiate to win. Englewood Cliffs, NJ, Prentice-Hall, 1989, p. 76

¹¹ "The Fundamental Theorem of Poker" is explained on pages 17-26 of The Theory of Poker.

¹² David Sklansky, "The Fundamental Theorem of Investing," Card Player, August 16, 2002, pp. 34-36

¹³ ibid.

¹⁴ Dale Carnegie How To Win Friends and Influence People, NY, Simon and Schuster, 1936, copyright renewed 1964, P. 37. The italics were in the book.

Use your credit card to play online poker

It's quick. It's easy. It works.

U.S. poker players can deposit money into Full Tilt Poker, PokerStars and Bodog accounts using your Visa or MasterCard. This isn't new exactly, but it seems like many people may not know about it.

I deposited to Full Tilt using my MasterCard for the first time today so that I could be credited with my $500 deposit bonus. I had to e-mail Full Tilt a few times before they would increase my deposit limit from $600 to $1,000 so I could take full advantage of the 50 percent bonus, but once they did, the process was super easy.

I clicked on the MasterCard option. I typed in my credit card number and three-digit security number. I waited 20 seconds for the transaction to be approved. And then the money was there.

A lot of people may have stopped playing poker or busted out after Neteller left the U.S. market. With few ways to get money back in to the poker sites, the games seemed like they got tougher.

Now, some of the players who didn't play because they didn't have an easy way to get money into their accounts will hopefully come back to the tables. By using a credit card, you don't even need to set up a third-party account through ePassporte or Click2Pay, which can take days or weeks to verify.

It's kind of funny how Full Tilt seems to have gotten around banks' inhibitions about being used to fund gambling sites. The transactions are processed through outside businesses that are not related to gambling. In my case, after I made my deposit, I received an e-mail from Full Tilt that said my deposit would show up on my credit card bill as a transaction with a video game Web site. Whatevers.

It should also be said that some credit cards may not process the transactions, but I know a few people now who have deposited without any difficulties at all. In some cases, even credit cards that didn't work in the past are successfully processing transactions now.

When it comes time to withdraw money from online poker sites, I've been requesting paper checks through the mail. I've done this several times with no problems.

So whip out your credit card and play some pokah!

New Layout and HOTD

I've felt very comfortable with my revised PokerAce layout. It's similar to my old layout, but I've removed both total Aggression Factor and Aggression Frequency, and I've added Aggression Frequency by street.

Here's what it looks like (although the colors aren't as bright as they actually appear on-screen). Click on it for a larger image:



Key:
Left hand column: Flop aggression frequency, turn aggression frequency, river aggression frequency
Middle column: VP$IP and Folds to Continuation Bet (purple)
Right column: PFR, Went to Showdown (yellow) and Total Hands (Blue)

---

And now for a Hand of the Day! This was fun because of my opponent's overbet, which definitely NOT for value.

Hero is dealt [As Ah] in SB
Villain raises to $35
Hero raises to $100
Villain calls $65 (his first mistake)
FLOP [Kc Jd Jh]
Hero bets $150
Villain calls $150 (I guess he could have a Jack, but AK or a draw is more likely)
TURN [Kc Jd Jh][3h]
Hero checks (I decide that it's very probable that I'm ahead, and I want to see what Villain does)
Villain bets $774 and is all-in (Now I know for sure I'm good. I can't see him playing trip Jacks like this unless he's smarter than I give him credit for)
Hero calls $774
RIVER [Kc Jd Jh 3h][9h]
SHOW DOWN
Villain shows [Ac Th] (A Pair of Jacks, Ace high) (Nice hand, genius)
Hero shows [As Ah] (Two Pairs, Aces and Jacks, King high)
Hero collected $2055 from Main pot

---

I'm feeling pretty optimistic about the poker world now.

Sure, Barney Frank's UIGEA repeal legislation is a longshot, but it's progress. And now that Yahoo! is entering the real money poker world on the BOSS network, that's a mainstream sign from a big business that isn't as afraid of the recent U.S. actions against gambling. Of course, U.S. players can't play on Yahoo!, but I would have thought Yahoo!'s executives would have feared prosecution.

MyWebATM Trip Report

Cliff Notes: MyWebATM sucks and won't let me open an account because I'm debt-free.

Since Congress passed a law that limits deposit and withdrawal options from Internet poker sites, it's been a bit tougher for U.S. players to access their money. At Full Tilt Poker, U.S. players' options are limited to transfers by paper check, ePassporte or MyWebATM. Because I don't like waiting for checks to arrive in the mail and I had previously closed my ePassporte account, I tried to set up a MyWebATM account.

They wouldn't let me sign up for an account, and they don't have a good reason for it.

As I understand it, MyWebATM would function like Neteller used to by allowing online transactions to gambling sites. In addition, they issue a card that allows you to withdraw money
from ATMs.

I'll try to keep this as brief as I can:

On MyWebATM's Web site, they ask you several security questions about your credit history before they will issue you an account. In my case, they asked me about auto leases and home mortgages that have nothing to do with me. I have never leased a car or mortgaged a home. Because I answered "None of the above" to each of the questions, the Web site informed they could not create my account.

Here are the questions I was asked:

Your credit file indicates you may have a mortgage loan, opened in or around March 2003. Who is the credit provider for this account?

What are the terms for the above-referenced account?

Your credit file indicates you may have an auto loan/lease, opened in or around July 2005. Who is the credit provider for this account?

What is the total monthly payment for the above-referenced account?

Your credit file indicates you may have an installment account (personal loans, electronic/appliance accounts, jeweler accounts, auto loans, etc.), opened in or around April 2005. Who is the credit provider for this account?

What are the terms for the above-referenced account?

I sent them an e-mail (to support@mywebatm.com), and they said they would review my information. They wrote back saying they could not create my account, but they did not offer an explanation. I sent them a second e-mail, and their support staff never replied.

At this point I got worried that MyWebATM was asking me about private credit information that had nothing to do with me. I thought, "Maybe they're accessing my credit report, and I have some bad information on there that's hurting my credit."

When I checked my credit report, I found that I had a perfect record and had never made a late payment. There was no evidence of mortgages or leases on there.

Then I e-mailed Full Tilt for help, and they told me to call them at 1-888-845-8729. Their representative was friendly, but the only thing she could tell me was that I should try to call MyWebATM directly. She said MyWebATM comes up with its security questions using a system that's linked to my Social Security Number.

MyWebATM has removed its phone number from their Web site, but Full Tilt gave it to me. For anyone out there who wants to give them a try, the number is 1-866-746-7246. Then when the automated system asks for your account number, just bang on the "0" key about 20 or 30 times until a customer service representative picks up.

The first time I tried this, I was told that the MyWebATM part of the company was closed for the evening.

The second time, I finally got through to a representative.

Basically, she told me that because I'm debt-free, I can't set up an account.

Unless I had a mortgage or an auto lease, there's no way for me to answer their security questions. I asked if there were any other security questions I could answer, and the representative said there were not.

This doesn't make much sense to me. It's certainly no way to run a business, if they won't work with people like me who don't owe anyone any money and have pristine credit.

MyWebATM may work for some people, but I don't have much faith that their money is safe based on my experience.

Here's a 2+2 thread with more information on MyWebATM.

It's all fun and games till the taxman comes

Man, the government rake is terrible!

I haven't double checked my math yet, but it looks like I owe somewhere in the neighborhood of 35 percent taxes on my $51,000 in winnings from 2006. That's such a bad beat. In fact, it's the worst beat I've ever taken.

The government really screws gamblers in every way. The tax code is incomprehensible. The requirement of having to itemize losses as a deduction is ridiculous. What's more, all this money had been taxed many times before it reached my poker accounts, and now I'm paying a hefty price. I guess it's like a transaction fee for the fish to send their money to me.

What's even more annoying about this is that I'm giving all this money to a federal government that's try to prohibit me from participating in the activity that generated this revenue.

Dear federal government,

I won a fair amount of money from gambling in 2006. I would appreciate it if you would stop trying to inhibit legal activities that result in large payments to you.

Love,

Poker Gnome

Why yes, I did read through 2+2 today. How did you guess?

So Neteller has now decided to stop doing business in Canada as well as the U.S., and no one seems to know exactly why. This is pure speculation, but maybe Neteller agreed to this condition as part of a forthcoming agreement with U.S. authorities. If that's the case, then perhaps we'll hear some good news about money being released sometime soon. I only have $9 tied up there, but I know many other people have much more significant amounts that they can't get it.

Neteller's behavior -- as well as many other ewallets and poker sites -- has always seemed baffling at first glance. But I've come to believe the generally accepted wisdom that businesses are tremendously risk-averse even if they're founded on gambling. Just because poker players should usually opt for the highest-value play without regard to risk doesn't mean poker sites will subscribe to the same belief. And who knows, maybe we will get a poker exemption to the UIGEA someday.

I also found it interesting to hear that Planet Poker, the first online poker room that offered real money games in 1998, is ceasing operations because of the impacts of the UIGEA. As Grinder suggested, Planet Poker didn't upgrade or change with the times. Sure, they may have been first. But I never played there, and I only ever read about it in nostalgic Roy Cooke columns in CardPlayer. Even so, it's sad to see a poker site bite it.

Finally, Lee Jones is leaving his job as poker room manager for PokerStars. I always liked making fun of Jones for no good reason. Maybe it's because he's the face of a bad beat -- a goofy smiling dude who doesn't give a shit because all of your money are belong to PokerStars anyway. That said, he seemed like a great ambassador for the game, and I enjoyed his small stakes limit book when I read it in Santiago.

Back in Action

The FTOPS main event was a big, fun tourney in which several bloggers represented -- brdweb, iakaris, fuel, raveen, lucko, hoyazo, cmitch and probably a few others that I'm missing. Congrats to brdweb for his 38th-place finish!

As for me, I finished about 30 outside of the money in 470-something place. This tourney had the best structure of any MTT I have ever played. Starting stacks were very deep, with 5,000 chips to play with and slow-moving blinds. The large stacks made me feel comfortable to take my time and choose my spots carefully, which is something I often fail to do when the blinds are too high in proportion to my stack.

I started off really hot. I was dealt KK twice, took down a couple of pots with flush draws, hit two pair off the blinds twice and caught two sets. At the high-point, I had somewhere around 25,000 chips.

But then I lost it when I moved in with a flush draw and an overcard vs. top pair, top kicker Tens. I feel good about that play because I had no desire to fold my way into the money. I wanted to keep building my stack, and pushing in with a coin-flip on the flop against a weak made hand is the way to do it. A fold would have been super weak.

At the same time, I was playing in the Big Game, which brought out a very tough field. Thanks to MiamiDon for organizing it.

I held the chip lead heading into the final table, but the second- and third-place stacks were directly to my left -- eventual winner Pauly (congrats!) and Fuel.

The crucial hand came against Pauly. I raised with T9s, and he called from the button. The flop came Qc-Tc-4d. My thinking went like this: Pauly cold called from the button, so it's unlikely that he has a strong Queen. The pot was already pretty large, and I felt like he would bet at the flop with any pocket pair, any flopped pair or any draw. I decided that against that kind of range, a pair of Tens wasn't half bad! Because any bet would basically pot commit him, I decided to check-raise him all in. That's exactly what happened, and Pauly turned over Kh-Qh for the best hand, which held up.

Pauly made a good play. His flat call on the flop made me think he had a low pocket pair or a weak drawing hand rather than high cards. I wonder if I out-thought myself by deciding to play a large pot in this spot. If I had bet out on the flop, it's possible I could have folded to a raise. Meh. I pushed and made (sloppy) quad twos a few hands later against 88. Then I busted with TT vs. an Ace that hit.

---

Here's an exerpt from a comment Hoy recently made on MiamiDon's blog. I post it here because I feel the same way he does, except in reverse. My speciality is cash games rather than tourneys:

"I still am more or less clueless in any cash game I play of any real worth. If I could really understand why, I'm sure I would have made the necessary adjustments a long time ago. ...

For me I've proven to myself that I'm a true cash game donk, and there is so much more variance in terms of one's roll anyways, so I just gave up trying after only a brief sojourn to verify that I, in fact, heehaw at the cash games."

On the other hand, I donk it up damn good in multi-table tourneys, but cash games seem to come naturally. He comments that cash games cause more variance that tourneys, which is probably true, but maybe I don't feel the swings as much because wins aren't so far apart. Even when I play well, it's so discouraging to bust out of tournaments.

Perhaps the bottom line is that we feel the swings most at the games we don't excel at, which makes perfect sense.

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One of those games I don't excel at is shorthanded limit hold 'em. And yet, I continue to take shots at it every once in a while because I want a change in pace from the daily no limit cash game grind against the same freakin' players.

I read on 2+2 recently that many successful shorthanded limit players see close to 40 percent of flops! Because I view limit as being a more mathematical game, I would imagine that this degree of looseness may be close to correct. I don't know and I don't understand how to see so many flops and still be a winning player. It's that lack of comprehension that will forever keep me from being a winner in limit.

So, unless and until I learn how to play a lot better, I'm swearing off shorthanded limit hold 'em at any level above 5/10. It'll save me a lot of money.

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The inability to deposit and withdraw money from poker sites remains the biggest issue in the poker world. Ever since Neteller stopped doing business with U.S. players and its assets were frozen by the feds, the games have been dropping in quality.

There's no doubt in my mind that the games will steadily get worse until new payment options gain credibility and widespread acceptance. MyWebATM and Giftcard.com are reportedly filling part of the void, but we're a long way away from the ease of transactions we experienced back in the heyday of the USS Neteller and the USS Firepay.

It's interesting to read and hear about the responses of many poker players to the bleak picture in the poker world. Many players have withdrawn their bankrolls or won't play anymore, and that may be appropriate for their situations.

But for me and many other players, those kinds of actions are decidedly -EV. Sure the games are getting tougher, the fish are busting and it's difficult to turn virtual dollars into real ones. On the other hand, nothing has really changed for the player sitting at the table. We still need to scope out the most fishy tables, find the best values, play our best game and grow our bankrolls to the best of our ability. If you're a winning player, I don't understand why the UIGEA would change your approach to the game itself.

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These last couple of weeks brought a much-needed break from blogging because I felt like my posts were getting worse. I was also feeling paranoid about writing too much about how I play and about the inherent public nature of a blog.

I toyed with the idea of stopping the blog altogether, but the fact is that it makes me a better poker player. Even if I'm just rambling on about random crap (like today for example), at least I'm putting some thought and effort into reflecting on the game.

Now I plan on getting back on schedule. While the primary purpose of this space is to help me become a better poker player, I hope it's also informative, interesting and instructive for you. I realize I'll frequently fall short in this space of achieving those goals, but I'll nail it sometimes, too.

It isn't over till I say it's over

"If you’re going to call on the river, you might as well raise on the turn—this is a fundamental concept in pot-limit and no-limit poker."
--Lyle Berman, "Super System 2"

OK, so online poker as we know it is going down the tubes. What's next?

I've been trying to look for the silver lining in this mess the U.S. government has gotten us into, and there are a few positives.

One short-term outcome is that many players' money is temporarily stuck in their respective sites while they try to find new withdrawal methods. This means that a lot of their money is in play right now, in the few weeks before the games go to crap.

I've seen plenty of bad players burning through their cash the last couple of days. After all, what's a gambler who can't withdraw his money going to do? He's going to play with it. And I'm going to concentrate over the next few weeks of grabbing as much of that dead money as I can.

Another plus is that it seems like many players have this feeling that playing poker is pointless because it may all be over soon. I felt this way for a little while too, but now I think this mind-set can lead to sloppy play. I hope to target some opponents who have given up hope.

In the long run, it's possible that these hurdles to online poker will turn out for the best: that only after going through these hard times will people seriously work to pass a poker exemption into law, and that could lead to a second boom. I admit it seems unlikely that poker will get an exemption to the UIGEA anytime soon, but can you imagine how great the games would be if that did happen?

These obstacles are also a chance to diversify your games. If you only know hold 'em, you really need to branch out to other brands of poker that may not dry up as quickly. I'm trying to learn pot limit Omaha and triple draw, in part because there aren't too many good players in these games. I've found them to be profitable so far.

Finally, while I know it's wishful thinking to believe a new Neteller-type payment processor will suddenly rise up, there are still possibilities for new deposit methods to emerge. I don't know what will become the dominant way to get money in and out of poker sites, but there are a few options being discussed on blogs and forums -- things like phone card deposits, paper checks through the mail, USPPInc or offshore banks backed by the poker sites themselves. None appear promising, but we'll see.

Don't despair! Even if everything does suck, now is the time for constructive ideas. If nothing else, play poker now while you still can. Who knows what might come next. We may soon hear that PokerStars or Full Tilt are pulling out of the U.S. as well.

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I posted a little while ago about the Dogwatch Handgrabber, which allows you to datamine and display Bodog stats with Pokertracker. This program is awesome, but I found it to be a little bit buggy. Almost every time, it eventually caused my Bodog client to crash, forcing me to miss hands while I reloaded the software.

Fortunately, a work-in-progress solution was found a few weeks ago. Apparently, the crashes only occurred on dual processor computer systems because of some kind of hyperthreading error. The fix to this problem is to tell Dogwatch through Task Manager to only use one of your system's two processors. Here's the forum post with more detailed information and instructions.

Crap

UPDATE: It's done. Neteller has stopped allowing U.S. customers to transfer money to gambling sites, effective immediately.

I'm not going to rant about the idiocy of federal government regulation of the Internet gambling industry, so instead I'll make a few brief points and throw up some links.

Following the arrests of two of Neteller's founders, it is believed that the payment processor will soon close its business to U.S. customers. Neteller is the leading method of funding poker accounts, and its withdrawal from the U.S. market will decrease the enjoyment of playing online and lead to less profitable games.

For the record:

_ The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act does not make playing poker online illegal.

_ The Wire Act does not apply to Internet poker.

_ The recent arrests relating to Neteller and other sports betting sites are not based on the UIGEA -- charges include money laundering and intent to promote illegal gambling.

_ Sites like Party Poker (and presumably Neteller) are withdrawing from the U.S. market in response to fears that their executives will face prosecution. By targeting the businessmen who run or founded these companies, the U.S. Justice Department is successfully intimidating them into making policy changes.

_ The World Trade Organization's case against the United States, led by Antigua, is still pending. It's possible that WTO sanctions against the U.S. could lead to changes in gambling laws.

Links:

What the Neteller Busts Mean

Online Poker in the US Takes Another Shot to the Kidneys

Neteller Founders Charged with Money Laundering Conspiracy

Neteller Founders Detained: New UIGEA Precedent or Old School?