State of the Games

The characteristics of the NL games I play on Full Tilt change slowly as the regulars learn new tricks, the fish bust out and new challengers attempt to break through.

What follows are some observations based on my recent impressions, not hard statistics:

I'm seeing more cold-calling preflop in position rather than rampant 3-betting. Players are realizing that frequent 3-bets will get 4-bet by savvy opponents, forcing a fold and sacrificing equity. The value of position is so great that it makes sense to see flops with hands that hold some value. Position is more valuable in a single-raised pot than in a reraised pot.

Postflop play is always becoming more sophisticated. I'm encountering plenty of check-raise bluffs and check-raise value bets, which get very expensive when I incorrectly read one check-raise for the other.

Everyone is trying to play optimally. They all want to make the right move at the right time based on the situation instead of playing the player. There's a bit of both in everyone's game, but more strong regulars are defaulting to the book play rather than making what could be a profitable move against an easy-to-read opponent.

My understanding of optimal play is that it can't be defeated, which means the best strategy against these opponents is to play more optimally than they do. Put simply, that means playing mistake-free poker, which is difficult to do for hours on end.

Fish continue to swim in the 3/6 and 5/10 waters. I don't know where they come from, and there certainly aren't as many guppies as there used to be, but some show up every day. There's still easy money around if you look for it.

Some of the worst players now are those who go off the deep end when it comes to aggression, raising and check-raising every bet they can. Those players may look solid at first, but they almost always end up hanging themselves.

The game is continuing to evolve, which says to me that it remains healthy. Many players are working to learn more and improve their game, but I don't think NL games are too much closer to becoming "solved" (whatever that means).

A solid player will still win, and there are soft spots to be found. But to make the most of the games and maximize your winrate, it's best to change with the times.