I wrote a couple of days ago about a hand in which I raised all-in on the flop with the nut flush draw and overcards. I had AJs vs. my opponent's top pair, top kicker AT hand.
"I failed to improve. I later ran the hand through twodimes.net and found that I was a 52-48 dog. I'll take those odds any day against a poor player in a large pot. Next time, he'll pay. Fish always pay eventually," I wrote.
Waffles commented:
SirFWALGMan said...
Arnt you the fish if your behind by 2%? You will never win in the long run, you will lose 2%. right? I would say if you really are the better player you would want to wait for a situation where you are ahead. Then you will win over time.
I believe I will win lots of money over time by getting in +EV situations like this.
In this specific hand, there was $169 in the pot when I pushed all in for $236 more. If my opponent folds, I'm in good shape because I win the pot right away. But if he doesn't fold, I'm also in a favorable situation. I pushed all-in for $374 in an attempt to win a $779 pot including my opponent's call.
So I was getting 405:374 on my money, or approximately 52:48 pot odds -- 4 percentage points more than the 48 percent I needed to be profitable.
When you count folding equity and the chance that my my odds are even better against some hands in my opponent's range (especially hands that exclude an Ace), I feel like this move is easily justifiable.
Thanks for the comment though -- I like opportunities to think through odds, even when I'm pretty sure I'm right.
Here's the hand history:
Party Poker ($4 no limit). Hand converted by Check Raised hand converter
Preflop (5 players): Hero is CO with
1 fold.
HERO raises $14.00.
BTN calls ($14.00).
2 folds.
Flop (8.5 bets ($34) in pot, 2 players):
HERO bets $32.00.
BTN raises $137.81.
HERO raises $342.00.
BTN calls ($236.19).
Turn (195.50 bets ($782.00) in pot, 2 players):
River (195.50 bets ($782.00) in pot, 2 players):
Summary:
BTN has Two pair, Tens and Sixes [
] and won $779.50 (97.44bb)HERO has a pair of Sixes [
]
2 comments:
Just like trying to argue that someone did not have pot odds and so forth, you really never know unless you KNOW his cards.
In limit I always hear people whine that so and so did not have the odds to call - problem is he did not KNOW the guy had a straight or whatever.
Arguing odds is useless and only can be done AFTER the fact.
Sure - he can prove you were wrong NOW. That's easy!
But I wasn't wrong! At least, I don't think so. The pot was large enough for it to be right for me to put my money in as a slight dog.
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