Saturday, March 22, 2008

HOTD: Combo draw call all-in HU on turn

In this match, my opponent and I had been going back and forth for about 100 hands. Villain had taken the lead from two hands in which he reraised a light 4-bet all-in and I folded, and when he smooth-called a 3-bet and then raised a continuation bet on a TT2 flop.

So this was an aggressive match, very rarely going to showdown but involving plenty of preflop and flop raising and bluffing.

I had never flat-called out of position until this hand, when I decided I needed to change gears and attempt to move the match into more of a postflop battle:

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Seat 1: Monster Kill ($1,396.75) - -
Seat 2: smizmiatch ($1,010) -


Monster Kill posts small blind $5
smizmiatch posts BIG blind $10
Dealt To: smizmiatch

RAISE Monster Kill ($30)
CALL smizmiatch ($20)


Pot: $60

CHECK smizmiatch
BET Monster Kill ($45)
RAISE smizmiatch ($145)
CALL Monster Kill ($100)


Pot: $350

BET smizmiatch ($300)
RAISE Monster Kill ($1221.75)

What's your move here?

Villain's line looks like it could be pretty strong, but it's hard to put him on a hand. Maybe he would wait until the turn to raise with an overpair, but that isn't how he had been playing. Or perhaps he picked up a Ten on the turn.

I decided he probably had a pair, but maybe a straight draw.

Fortunately, the pot odds made my decision easier, although it was still close.

I believed my 14 outs were good, and I estimated that the pot was offering me 3:1. With 14 outs, I only needed 2.29:1, according to PokerTracker. In actuality, I was getting $1,485:$535 pot odds, or 2.78:1, which was still enough to call.

CALL smizmiatch ($535)
UNCALLED Monster Kill ($386.75)


Pot: $2020

Monster Kill:


smizmiatch collected $2019.5 from main pot with a flush, Queen high

Total pot: $2 Rake: $0.50

Final Board:

Seat 1: Monster Kill small blind showed [Qh 9c] and lost with a pair of Queens - Net Gain/Loss: ($-1010)

Seat 2: smizmiatch big blind showed [4s 7s] and won 2,019.50 with a flush, Queen high - Net Gain/Loss: ($1009.5)

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Boom! I was ahead the whole time, and the flush on the river was just icing.

I find that these 3:1 pot odds situations come up often on the turn, With one card to come, you need at least 12 outs to show a profit to call when the pot is offering these odds ... unless your opponent is bluffing and your pair of 4s is good anyway.


Alan aka RecessRampage said...

Gnome, to be honest with, after the turn shove, my initial thought was that there was a good chance you were ahead. He raises pre, cbets, then calls your raise. To me, this seemed like 2 overcards. Raising all in with the T on the turn did not scream monster to me and even so, in that situation with the amount of money on the table, I think that's a clear "must call."

Wes said...

You really have some awful game selection.

Gnome said...

Man, that's funny. I didn't know Monster Kill was any good. Looks like he's a tourney player who also goes by EC10 according to a quick search.
I really do exercise a lot of game selection when I know my opponents. Against unknowns, I assume they're donks until I know better.