HOTD: Combo draw call all-in HU on turn

In this match, my opponent and I had been going back and forth for about 100 hands. Villain had taken the lead from two hands in which he reraised a light 4-bet all-in and I folded, and when he smooth-called a 3-bet and then raised a continuation bet on a TT2 flop.

So this was an aggressive match, very rarely going to showdown but involving plenty of preflop and flop raising and bluffing.

I had never flat-called out of position until this hand, when I decided I needed to change gears and attempt to move the match into more of a postflop battle:

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Seat 1: Monster Kill ($1,396.75) - -
Seat 2: smizmiatch ($1,010) -


PRE-FLOP:

Monster Kill posts small blind $5
smizmiatch posts BIG blind $10
Dealt To: smizmiatch


RAISE Monster Kill ($30)
CALL smizmiatch ($20)


FLOP:

Pot: $60


CHECK smizmiatch
BET Monster Kill ($45)
RAISE smizmiatch ($145)
CALL Monster Kill ($100)


TURN:

Pot: $350


BET smizmiatch ($300)
RAISE Monster Kill ($1221.75)


What's your move here?

Villain's line looks like it could be pretty strong, but it's hard to put him on a hand. Maybe he would wait until the turn to raise with an overpair, but that isn't how he had been playing. Or perhaps he picked up a Ten on the turn.

I decided he probably had a pair, but maybe a straight draw.

Fortunately, the pot odds made my decision easier, although it was still close.

I believed my 14 outs were good, and I estimated that the pot was offering me 3:1. With 14 outs, I only needed 2.29:1, according to PokerTracker. In actuality, I was getting $1,485:$535 pot odds, or 2.78:1, which was still enough to call.

CALL smizmiatch ($535)
UNCALLED Monster Kill ($386.75)


RIVER:

Pot: $2020




SHOWDOWN:
Monster Kill:

smizmiatch:


smizmiatch collected $2019.5 from main pot with a flush, Queen high

SUMMARY:
Total pot: $2 Rake: $0.50

Final Board:


Seat 1: Monster Kill small blind showed [Qh 9c] and lost with a pair of Queens - Net Gain/Loss: ($-1010)

Seat 2: smizmiatch big blind showed [4s 7s] and won 2,019.50 with a flush, Queen high - Net Gain/Loss: ($1009.5)


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Boom! I was ahead the whole time, and the flush on the river was just icing.

I find that these 3:1 pot odds situations come up often on the turn, With one card to come, you need at least 12 outs to show a profit to call when the pot is offering these odds ... unless your opponent is bluffing and your pair of 4s is good anyway.