Monday, July 16, 2007

Statistically Insignificant

This thread and video are pretty funny: Weed Brownies + 200/400 NL = ??????

Here's a crazy hand:

Five players limped to me in the small blind, and I called with 95 of spades. The big blind raises to $60. Three players in front of me call, so I decide to come along too.

The flop was As 7h 8s, giving me a flush draw and a gutshot straight draw. I liked my odds, and I decided to play this large pot aggressively. There was already more than $300 in the pot.

Surprisingly, the initial raiser in the big blind checked it, as did everyone else except the button. He bet out $100. I check-raised him to $300, hoping to take it down. Unfortunately, a middle position player called and the button called.

The turn brought the 7s, making my flush but also pairing the board. There was more than $1,200 in the pot, I made my hand, and I had $600 left. I pushed all in, and I think I'm OK with it.

On one hand, against two callers of my $300 check-raise, I have to wonder what they were calling with. When the 7 pairs the board, I have to be worried.

But wouldn't a set have raised all in on the flop? And wouldn't many flush draws have folded?

I decided I couldn't just lay down my hand, especially since my pot odds would have been about 3:1 if I had checked and someone else had pushed. So I made the big bet myself.

Unfortunately, both players called, and I knew I was in trouble.

The middle position player had KT of spades for the higher flush. The button _ who had limped, cold-called a raise preflop, called a flop check-raise and called a turn all-in _ had KK on an Ace-high board. The flush took down the pot worth more than $3,000.

My play on every street is debatable, but I feel good about it. The gravitation of the big pot lured me in, and it would have been difficult to escape after having made my flush on the turn. Really, my flop check-raise should have taken it down. Anyone see this hand differently?


R said...

I think this is an example of a time when everyone's making a mistake, but the dealer has to give the pot to somebody.

Button's play with kings on an ace-high board in a multiway pot is catastrophically stupid, of course. He doesn't even have Ks for the backdoor flush! Yes, that's a draw-heavy board, but he has to figure he's drawing to two outs at best after there's a checkraise and a caller. He overcalls with a bad hand and then does it again on the turn. This is a ridiculously bad series of plays even for a limit game.

Middle-position player, meanwhile, calls a big checkraise. He has the nut flush draw, but he's not closing the action, so this is clearly an optimistic call - what's he going to do when button pushes? (Call, obviously, since he's optimistic.)

You, meanwhile, have a tough hand to get away from, and have to protect it if it's good. If there's a mistake you made it's in not remembering that a higher flush draw is not statistically unlikely in a multiway pot. I think the only way you don't go broke is if you have solid numbers on your opponents or if you just smooth-call the flop - yes, there's great value in taking down the hand right there, but nobody's shown much strength and you also get value from someone overcalling with an ace or a straight draw with no flush outs.

Pseudo_Doctor said...

You probably should have pop the CR greater then 300 IMO cause 200 more to call that pot with the implied odd's of taking down a big pot would be an instant call if I was the dude with the nut flush draw...400-500 definitely would have gotten a fold and probably still a call from the KK idiot

Gnome said...

Good point. A bigger check-raise might've done it.