Friday, July 06, 2007

Overpairs on monochrome boards

Here's the problem: You have AA or KK and raise in late position. The big blind calls. The flop comes down single suited, like 3c 6c 8c, and you have the Kc for the second nut flush draw. You bet, and the blind check-raises you all in. What's your move?

OK, maybe this is obvious. You need to fold because you're a dog in most situations, even though it's tempting to call with a big overpair and a redraw.

Against a flopped flush, you're essentially dominated because your redraw to the higher flush has only 7 outs. Against a strong draw, like the nut flush draw or a combo straight and flush draw, the KK is still way behind your opponent's range.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.624% 37.62% 00.00% 7822 0.00 { KcKh }
Hand 1: 62.376% 62.38% 00.00% 12968 0.00
{88, 66, 33, QcJc, QcTc, JcTc, Tc9c, 9c7c, 7c4c, 5c4c, AcKd,
AcKh, AcKs, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs}

Even if you had a suited AA instead of KK, your odds only improve to about 40-60. So I think a fold is still appropriate in that situation against your opponent's range.

A few hands later, I played a similar hand the same way.

I raised a few limpers with AA from the button and got called by the big blind and an UTG limper. As in the last hand, I bet the monochrome flop, and the UTG player went all in.

Again, I was behind my opponent's range, which is much tighter this time after he limps UTG.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.766% 39.07% 00.69% 6189 110.00 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 60.234% 59.54% 00.69% 9431 110.00
{ 99, 8c8d, 8d8h, 8d8s, 77-66, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, JdTd }

For what it's worth, I called with both of these hands even though I should have folded. I won the KK hand and lost the AA hand.

What can I say? I'm still fishy at times, but at least I'm learning something. And hey, I had outs!
pokenum -h jc tc - kc kh -- 8c 3c 6c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8c 6c 3c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Jc Tc 677 68.38 313 31.62 0 0.00 0.684
Kc Kh 313 31.62 677 68.38 0 0.00 0.316
pokenum -h ad as - 8d 8s -- 9d 6d 7d
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9d 7d 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ad 647 65.35 331 33.43 12 1.21 0.660
8s 8d 331 33.43 647 65.35 12 1.21 0.340


glasbead said...

But you're considering he flopped the flush. What about the times he has an overpair and a draw?

jamyhawk said...

I laughed when you said you still called with those hands. All that analysis and you know it is wrong, yet still have to call with KK or AA.

I laughed because I do the same thing, even when I know it is a poor call.

Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

I'm not convinced that your reasoning is correct here, Gnome. I think for me this decision would depend a lot more on my read of the other player than on the numbers you put up in your post there. If I thought the guy had flopped the flush, then I could look at your numbers and look at the pot odds and fold if the proper odds are not being laid. But often times it's a guy with a (lower) overpair, or top pair good kicker, who pushes in that situation because they have no part of the flush draw and want to get you out of the pot with as much pressure as possible before a fourth sooted card hits and ruins their hand entirely. I just think this decision for me is based much more on (1) my read and (2) my pot odds than on the suite of numbers you included in your post.

Gnome said...

Those are certainly good points, especially that you need to consider your read of your opponent when you make a call. I guess my point is that you need a very strong read to make this kind of call because you're often behind your opponent's range. And when the pot is still reasonably sized, that might be the right time to fold. I guess I feel like you're either a little ahead or a little behind, so you don't have much of an edge, especially when you're put in the position of having to call an all-in bet.