tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18806762.post3684047477456722019..comments2023-09-28T06:47:43.209-04:00Comments on The Surly Poker Gnome: Statistically InsignificantGnomehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06181215527323378978noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18806762.post-22186655005775696352007-07-17T14:16:00.000-04:002007-07-17T14:16:00.000-04:00Good point. A bigger check-raise might've done it....Good point. A bigger check-raise might've done it.Gnomehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06181215527323378978noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18806762.post-84015990431778944742007-07-17T14:11:00.000-04:002007-07-17T14:11:00.000-04:00You probably should have pop the CR greater then 3...You probably should have pop the CR greater then 300 IMO cause 200 more to call that pot with the implied odd's of taking down a big pot would be an instant call if I was the dude with the nut flush draw...400-500 definitely would have gotten a fold and probably still a call from the KK idiotPseudo_Doctorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00049692650443291796noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18806762.post-72674712082784230642007-07-17T05:08:00.000-04:002007-07-17T05:08:00.000-04:00I think this is an example of a time when everyone...I think this is an example of a time when everyone's making a mistake, but the dealer has to give the pot to somebody.<BR/><BR/>Button's play with kings on an ace-high board in a multiway pot is catastrophically stupid, of course. He doesn't even have Ks for the backdoor flush! Yes, that's a draw-heavy board, but he has to figure he's drawing to two outs at best after there's a checkraise and a caller. He overcalls with a bad hand and then does it again on the turn. This is a ridiculously bad series of plays even for a limit game.<BR/><BR/>Middle-position player, meanwhile, calls a big checkraise. He has the nut flush draw, but he's not closing the action, so this is clearly an optimistic call - what's he going to do when button pushes? (Call, obviously, since he's optimistic.)<BR/><BR/>You, meanwhile, have a tough hand to get away from, and have to protect it if it's good. If there's a mistake you made it's in not remembering that a higher flush draw is not statistically unlikely in a multiway pot. I think the only way you don't go broke is if you have solid numbers on your opponents or if you just smooth-call the flop - yes, there's great value in taking down the hand right there, but nobody's shown much strength and you also get value from someone overcalling with an ace or a straight draw with no flush outs.Absinthehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08885102339686246542noreply@blogger.com