Monster Draws

The sting of tax day still hurts. I hate losing bankroll because it sets back future earning potential and makes my goals for the year harder to reach. I've always wanted to get my bankroll up to $100,000, but it looks like it'll take few more months to get there. I guess that's the cost of doing business. Bleh.

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I'm a big fan of pushing my big draws on the flop, especially when I flop a pair and a flush draw. With 9 outs for the flush and as many as 5 for two pair, I often tell myself that I have close to 50 percent equity to hit one of my draws on either the turn or the river. And even if I'm slightly below 50 percent, I figure that fold equity can make up the deficit.

But a recent post from MiamiDon got me thinking about the times when it may be foolish to push draws that look good at the time but may not stand up against strong hand ranges. In his post, MiamiDon flops top pair Aces with the nut flush draw, but he's still worried about the pot growing too large on the flop.

In the end, he calls the flop, makes the nuts on the turn and busts his opponent, who held a set of 5s. A third player in the hand folded the turn. Presto not so gold.

I ran the numbers, and I was a little surprised to find that the so-called monster draw was in bad shape against other strong holdings:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2584057

pokenum  -h ad 3d  - 5c 5s  -- ah 8d 5d
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8d 5d Ah
cards  win   %win  lose  %lose  tie  %tie     EV
Ad 3d  304  30.71   686  69.29    0  0.00  0.307
5s 5c  686  69.29   304  30.71    0  0.00  0.693

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2584069

pokenum  -h ad 3d  - 5c 5s  - as kd  -- ah 8d 5d
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 8d 5d Ah
cards  win   %win  lose  %lose  tie  %tie     EV
Ad 3d  256  28.35   641  70.99    6  0.66  0.287
5s 5c  635  70.32   268  29.68    0  0.00  0.703
As Kd    6   0.66   891  98.67    6  0.66  0.010

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2584071

pokenum  -h ad 3d  - 5c 5s  - 6d 7d  -- ah 8d 5d
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 8d 5d Ah
cards  win   %win  lose  %lose  tie  %tie     EV
Ad 3d  161  17.83   742  82.17    0  0.00  0.178
5s 5c  506  56.04   397  43.96    0  0.00  0.560
7d 6d  236  26.14   667  73.86    0  0.00  0.261

The lesson here is that jamming on the flop with a big draw isn't a good idea when you smell genuine strength in a multiway pot. While folding on such a great flop would be very weak, that doesn't mean you always need to go crazy.