Friday, June 12, 2009

Reraising Warz

How often do 3-bets, 4-bets and 5-bet shoves need to be successful to show a profit when 100 BBs deep?

It's easy to determine how often a reraise needs to get a fold to show a profit by calculating bet/(bet+pot). Note that this equation ignores hand values entirely because it only measures risk vs. reward.

1. 3-bet
CO raises to 3 BB, Button raises to 11 BB. Blinds are 1.5 BB.
11/15.5=71 percent

2. 4-bet.
CO raises to 3 BB, Button raises to 11 BB, CO raises to 25 BB. Blinds are 1.5 BB.
25/40.5=62 percent

3. 5-bet shove
Button raises to 3 BB, SB raises to 11 BB, Button raises to 25 BB, SB raises to 100 BB. Blinds are 1.5 BB.
100/137.5=73 percent


spritpot said...

the 5-bet is fundamentally different from the others because no matter what hand you have, at that point you're all-in and not folding, so you've got at least some showdown equity. Whereas if you're 3-betting or 4-betting and then folding, you don't have that equity. So if you have, say 25% equity against your opponent's range for calling your 5-bet, when you shove your expected payout is:

f*37 + (1-f)*(-89*.75 + 112*.25), which is = 0 when f = .49.


Gnome said...

Cool. Thanks for the calculations.