Here's a hand that helped me realize when I should consider laying down top pair or simply folding preflop:
Full Tilt Poker $2/$4 No Limit Hold'em - 2 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
BB: $425.50
Hero (BTN/SB): $400.00
Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BTN/SB with Q
9
Hero raises to $12, BB raises to $42, Hero calls $30
Flop: ($84.00) 7
2 Q (2 players)BB bets $48, Hero calls $48
Turn: ($180.00) 3
(2 players)BB bets $110, Hero raises to $310 all in, BB calls $200
River: ($800.00) T
(2 players - 1 is all in)Final Pot: $800.00
BB shows A
Q
(a pair of Queens)Hero shows Q
9 (a pair of Queens)BB wins $799.50
(Rake: $0.50)
My opponent in this hand was 3-betting me frequently (about 18 percent), so I thought I could justify a call in position with Q9o. When I hit top pair on the flop, I was willing to put it all in on most turn cards.
Using stoxev, I later learned that this isn't the best line against many opponents. Here are my conclusions:
_ Q9o is a pretty awful hand to call a 3-bet with, even in position heads-up. My simulation shows that Q9o doesn't become profitable in this hand example unless I'm against an aggressive opponent who's 3-betting around 30 percent of the time or more.
_ If I were to see a flop with Q9o against a more typical opponent (someone 3-betting around 18 percent of the time), the least -EV approach is to call two streets and fold the river. While there are times where this line is appropriate, I generally avoid the call-call-fold approach because it's too easy to get bluffed off the best hand.
_ Calling the flop and shoving the turn makes more money than simply raising the flop and getting it in, but not by much.
_ If my Q9 were suited or I had QJo or better, calling preflop and shoving the turn starts to show a profit.
_ Despite the two clubs on this board, this is still a pretty dry flop. Q9o with top pair performs better when there are a few more draws out there.
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