Wednesday, January 21, 2009

PLO HOTD: Top set sucks

This may be one of those times I've heard about when folding top set could be correct.

That's going to get some getting used to compared to hold'em.

Full Tilt Poker $2/$4 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 5 players - View hand 13671
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $189.10
Hero (BTN): $402.30
SB: $164.50
BB: $108.90
UTG: $505.30

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BTN with 33 of hearts TT of clubs 33 of diamonds TT of diamonds

UTG calls $4, CO calls $4, Hero calls $4, SB calls $2, BB checks

Flop: ($20.00) 44 of clubs 33 of clubs TT of hearts (5 players)

SB bets $20, BB raises to $80, UTG folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $280, SB calls $140.50 all in, BB calls $24.90 all in

Turn: ($445.90) 22 of hearts (3 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($445.90) AA of clubs (3 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $445.90

Hero shows 33 of hearts TT of clubs 33 of diamonds TT of diamonds (three of a kind, Tens)

SB shows 77 of clubs QQ of hearts 55 of clubs 66 of hearts (a flush, Ace high)

BB shows JJ of clubs 44 of spades 44 of hearts 99 of diamonds (three of a kind, Fours)

SB wins $111.20
SB wins $331.70
(Rake: $3.00)

My equity was pretty awful, even for a three-way pot:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=5841953
pokenum -o 3h tc 3d td - qh 6h 5c 7c - jc 4s 4h 9d -- 4c 3c th
Omaha Hi: 666 enumerated boards containing 4c 3c Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Tc Td 3d 3h 184 27.63 482 72.37 0 0.00 0.276
7c 5c Qh 6h 425 63.81 241 36.19 0 0.00 0.638
4s Jc 9d 4h 57 8.56 609 91.44 0 0.00 0.086

10 comments:

PokerFool said...

Na, I don't think it is that bad. The only thing that sucks is that you have two of your boat outs in your hand.

Sure, you are only 28% against those exact hands, but you have more equity than that against their range.

Bayne_S said...

The post flop aspect of hand is bad luck as more often than not one player has the wrap and other has nut flush draw.

Pre-flop having the 2 pairs is nice for flopping a set but set over set happens a LOT more frequently in PLO.

If you had flopped top and bottom set on a single suited flop then given the action you have to fold.

ron said...

u are horrible at plo, tt33 is autofold, read any book

spritpot said...

I am a complete PLO noob, so might be a really dumb question...but if you flopped top and bottom set on a monotone flop heads up, or if the BB had just called in this hand, would you fold one bet since you're assuming you're drawing to a FH or better, and you hold some of your own outs, and most PLO players don't pay off on paired boards with flushes?

Gnome said...

spritpot:
I don't know the answer.
I remember hearing some pro -- I think it was Phil Ivey -- saying he can rarely find a fold on the flop with top set. I think I'd want to call and see the turn most of the time.

Bayne_S said...

It is rare to ever fold top set especially on flop. This particular flop having 2 other people really liking flop would suggest following possibilities:

1) wrap + flush draw
2) nut flush draw
3) 2nd set
4) the 1st better could have just the wrap.

The only combo of those 4 hands that you are not getting right price for is case you found self up against.

To answer spiritpot's question:
In PLO people are far more likely to fold if board pairs, especially if it pairs on turn.

Klopzi said...

I'm still new at PLO but it looks like you got a little unlucky to be up against SB's monster draw.

More importantly, what was BB thinking in this hand? Hilarious...

Paul said...

Part of the analysis must include size of the chip stacks. Small chip stacks usually indicate a player that is loose and willing to gamble (either buying in short or playing loosely). I know this seems obvious, but that's why I don't understand the reraise from hero knowing that the flop has hit one of the player (BB with a set and SB with a draw). After the flop hero has five outs to a winning hand (in theory) but only 2in reality (3,10) the 4 would give the BB quads. Hero had to know that he was going to be called by the SB and the BB and should have realized that at least one had a better draw. (any of the four 2's, any remaining three 7's, any remaining remaining three 8's and clubs). Playing against shorter stacks is even trickier in omaha (IMHO) because so many people over value their hands and will call off more often. On the flip side, there is money to be made.

Greylocks said...

I would have raised on the button, and as a result would likely not have had the same issues as you on the flop.

Seeing as it's 2/4 and five-handed, the limpers almost certainly have crapola, as short-handed players in steal positions are usually itching to pull the trigger. Put the squeeze on them.

Also, you really need to pressure the blinds in PLO. They'll rob you blind if you let them see flops cheap, especially when you have pairs.

A raise on the button also gives you more options postflop.

TT33 is not a great hand, but five-handed on the button it's good enough to go on the attack in an unraised pot.

I hope you're not following Hwang's advice to start out by not raising preflop. That might be acceptable in a loose nine-handed game, but you won't make any money limping in all the time in short-handed games.

Play short-handed PLO like you play short-handed NLHE - attack a lot - and you'll probably see better results. The big winners in PLO are the aggressors, especially preflop aggressors.

However, the other side of this coin is that you have to be able to lay down your non-nut hands when it looks like they're no good. Grit-your-teeth-and-call-it-down is fine for NLHE but winning PLO is mostly about knowing when your hand is NFG.

These laydowns tend to be easier to make postflop if you raise preflop, for the simple reason that the other players tend to bet more honestly versus a preflop raiser.

You got a bit unlucky in the lay of the cards here, but on the other hand, one of the big differences between NLHE and PLO is that in the former, you think about "ranges" while in the latter, you should usually assume the worst. When my opponents bet and raise the pot preflop from out of position into a five-way field, I'm definitely assuming the worst - namely that one of them has 44 and the other has a big draw. You haven't played enough to know all the matchups, but seeing as you can pretty much count on having only 2 outs to improve, it's not that tough a laydown here.

Note that if you had raised preflop and they had both called (unlikely, but you never know), then because they're both shorties, you'll be getting better pot odds to call postflop if they get it all in.

tari said...

agreed to raise PF on BTN and evaluate on flop. very weak play as played.