Monday, April 21, 2008

Stacking off with AA: Right and Wrong

Paying off a set with an overpair can be one of the most expensive plays in poker, largely because sets are hard to read.

Here are two hands from today where I got all-in with AA, one in which I'll happily stack off and another where I screwed up royally.

Hand 1:

5/10 full ring
Hero is dealt Ac As
UTG calls $5
2 folds
Villain raises to $45
2 folds
CO calls $45
Hero raises to $180 from button
3 folds
Villain calls $135
CO folds.

Flop 7h, 8h, 2s

Villain checks.
Hero bets $355
Villain goes all-in.
Hero calls all-in.

Turn 5c

River Jh

Hero shows a pair of Aces.
Villain shows 7s, 7d for three of a kind, sevens.
Villain wins $2,151

I'm glad to get all in to someone who is willing to call off 1/5 of his stack preflop and can only win if he hits a set. Since he'll only flop a set about 1/8 of the time, I'm making immediate money any time he makes this preflop call. Even if I pay him off every time, I'll win lots of money in the long run.

This next hand should have been more avoidable.

Hand 2:

5/10 6 max
Hero is dealt Ad Ah from the button
Villain raises to $40 from UTG
1 folds.
Hero raises to $120
2 folds.
Villain calls $80

Flop Jh, 7d, 3s

Villain checks.
Hero checks. (I should have bet to give myself a way to get away from the hand. By checking behind, I'm going for a trap that commits me because I plan to raise if he bets out the turn.)

Turn Td

Villain bets $210
Hero raises $600 (I follow through with my plan. I could have tried calling here, but my fate was sealed in my mind. The only hand I beat if called is QQ)
Villain goes all-in.
Hero calls $265

River 2c

Hero a pair of Aces.
Villain shows Jd, Jc three of a kind, Jacks.
Villain wins $1,983 with three of a kind, Jacks.

What a poorly played hand on my part. Right or wrong, many players will call a 3-bet preflop with QQ-TT. I should have seen the possibility of the JJ set.

If I had bet the flop, I may have been able to fold to a check-raise. When the T came on the turn, I should have known sets made up a significant part of his range.


WillWonka said...

Seems opposite.. although I agree with the weak call with 77; but what is he pushing there that you are getting the right price to call? Is 2-1 to the magic number here?

on the 2nd hadn, it seems it would hard to get away from a check raise... unless he c/r all in.

But what do I know, I think I paid off 234,322,967 sets this weekend.

kurokitty said...

I agree. It's hard to get away from sets in 6-max. A cooler, IMO.

Gnome said...

In hand 1, opponent's range of hands that I beat is wider: QQ-99 and overcards with a flush draw.
It would have been hard to get away from a check-raise in hand 2, and it is a cooler, but I feel like the ability to escape certain death when drawing slim saves me a lot of money.

Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

I would say both of those situations are very difficult to get away from AA in. It's only when a really scary board falls (which I wouldn't say either of these hands had) where I find folding AA to be relatively easy.