I got a bit bluff-happy with this hand. It's similar to the one I posted the other day, but this time I may not have left myself enough of a stack on the turn for the bluff to be big enough. Or maybe my opponent just made a good read.
I don't know...this is another situation where I felt strongly that he didn't have the Ace, and I didn't believe he would be able to call a river bet without it. This time, it didn't work out.
3/6 6-max
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to smizmiatch [Qs Td]
1 fold
smizmiatch raises to $21
2 folds
gmauction calls $15 from BB
*** FLOP *** [Ac 6h Ah]
gmauction bets $30
smizmiatch calls $30 (Maybe this was the biggest mistake of the hand. I wanted to look like I was slowplaying, but a raise may have given myself more credibility. However, I wouldn't have had enough chips left to make a move on the river if I had raised here.)
*** TURN *** [Ac 6h Ah] [Jd]
gmauction bets $102
smizmiatch raises to $250 (Too small?)
gmauction calls $148
*** RIVER *** [Ac 6h Ah Jd] [3s]
gmauction checks
smizmiatch bets $343, and is all in
gmauction calls $343 (I'm surprised he called with just a J ... what can he beat except a bluff?)
*** SHOW DOWN ***
smizmiatch shows [Qs Td] a pair of Aces
gmauction shows [Qc Js] two pair, Aces and Jacks
gmauction wins the pot ($1,288) with two pair, Aces and Jacks
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3 comments:
If he called the raise on the turn with the J he's calling a less-than-pot river bet, no question - he has to have made the decision as to whether his hand is good. I think the only card that can win for you on the river is a K, especially Kh. If I'm going to get frisky here I'm raising to $300+ on the turn to tip the math a little, since opponent is probably either good or dead on this board.
There's meta-value in being able to fire that river shell that you'll get back later, probably - obviously people are going to try to pick you off when you reload - but if the turn bet fails I don't think a river bet wins often enough on this board to be profitable, since the only likely fold that beats you is the k-high flush draw.
Any other day this guy is a payoff wizard.
I wouldn't be too sure about that. With weak-tight players in 6-max, they'll assume when they hit the J on the turn they have the best hand and will call you down regardless. I've lost 3 bullets against this type of player plenty of times. Check-folding the river is appropriate here.
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