Monday, September 10, 2007

AA no good

Pot-limit Omaha remains fun on Full Tilt, where I've been playing PLO and limit hold em as I rebuild my bankroll there. 5/10 no limit hold em is still my main game on other sites, but it's educational to diversify.

One thing I know: all of these games are very profitable right now. I haven't seen the tables so loose in at least a year. I think it must be because of football season and WSOP Europe.

In PLO, it's taking me time to understand when wrap-around straight draws are valuable, and how shitty AAxx hands are.

Here's one AAxx hand that went right, followed by another than went wrong:

1) Limp-folding Aces is the only way to go. I'm starting to get used to it.

2) I flopped top set of Aces against a short stack who also flopped a straight with a redraw to a higher straight. I guess I misplayed this hand by raising the flop, but I wanted to get it all in against the short stack. I would have folded against a deeper stack, and I also would have likely folded after that 7 on the turn.
pokenum -o 8h 6c 4c 2d - ad ac 6s 3s -- as 5d 3d
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing As 5d 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
6c 4c 2d 8h 505 61.59 307 37.44 8 0.98 0.621
6s 3s Ac Ad 307 37.44 505 61.59 8 0.98 0.379

This hand isn't a good example, but it got me thinking about big wrap straight draws. I think it will take some time before I can instinctively count all those potential outs. Lyle Berman wrote in his "Super System 2" chapter that "in order to be 50-50 against a set, you really need seventeen outs twice. This is significant for Omaha, because most people think it’s thirteen or fourteen, as it is in hold’em."

Even if my opponent had held the five-way wrap straight draw 2467 on a board like K35, he would have still been a slight dog against my AA63 hand with 14 outs (Two Aces and three each of 2467) twice.
pokenum -o 2d 4c 6c 7h - ad ac 6s 3s -- 5d 3d ks
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Ks 5d 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
6c 4c 2d 7h 398 48.54 414 50.49 8 0.98 0.490
6s 3s Ac Ad 414 50.49 398 48.54 8 0.98 0.510

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