Thursday, November 02, 2006

Blacker than the blackest black. Times infinity.

Sweet. Metalocalypse will have a song featured on Guitar Hero II.

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In other news, the Rolling Stones canceled their Honolulu show, which really makes me mad.

All the other tour dates were rescheduled while Mick Jagger's delicate throat recovers, but not Honolulu. My guess is that they didn't sell enough tickets.

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And now: A Hand Questionably Played

Two people ahead of me limp in a 3/6 NL 6-max game, I call one off the button with J9o, the button raises to $18, the blinds fold and everyone calls. Many times I would fold or raise J9o, but the table dynamics led me to call. Four people see a flop with a $79 pot.

Flop comes QT7 with two suited cards, giving me a vulnerable open-ended straight draw. The early position player bets $75, and I flat call. The two other players fold. I put my opponent on either a flush draw or top pair.

The turn pairs my Jack, giving me lots of potential outs that may or may not be good. The early position player checks, and I decide to put in a largish bet of $200, thinking I might get a fold.

Here's where the hand gets interesting. The other player check-raises me all in -- something I really should have thought about before I bet. His bet brought the pot to about $900, but I only needed to call $300.

I could be pretty sure I was behind, but getting 3:1 pot odds, I felt like I had to call with as many as 13 outs (8 for the straight and 5 for 2 pair).

The river brought a King, completing my straight! My opponent had T7 for a flopped two pair.

I ran the numbers later on twodimes.net, and I found that I was a 64-36 dog in the hand, meaning my call was justified. One question remaining is whether I should have bet the turn. I think it was OK to bet it given my read.

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Oh October, how I will miss thee. It was my best month yet by far.

I'm just going to try to be careful in November after last year's Thanksgiving disaster, in which I got robbed while in the midst of a $6,000 downswing. Maybe I'm being silly and superstitious, but I don't want to go through that kind of bad run again.

4 comments:

Fuel55 said...

He shows weakness so I think you have to bet (over your lifetime). It is prefectly reasonable he got scared when you flat called his flop bet. Yet given that he was originally a limper - anything is possible and "safety first" makes checking the turn also perfectly reasonable. Just one of those hands where right is right and wrong is right.

HighOnPoker said...

Eh, I would consider checking on the turn. You really only have a drawing hand (ok, the Jacks too, but they just don't seem like enough here, as you even suggested). Take the free card, and if you hit your staight with your gapper cards, he's likely to bet big out of position. Since you have gapper cards, the straight won't be obvious, so you'll likely get paid off when you hit, but avoid taking a hit when you miss.

FedexAteMyBrain said...

Brutal.

The Dude said...

I don't think I'm ever limping here. Other than that this looks good to me. You have to bet that turn unless you have a read which tells you otherwise. You also have to call the push (again unless you have reads otherwise).