Wednesday, November 23, 2005


I decided to figure out the probability of any one of three cards falling on the flop. I wanted to figure this probability out after I won $100 by betting that an Ace, a Three or a Five would be flipped up. I knew the odds were in my favor, but I didn't know by how much.

Here's how I think you do the calculation:

40/52 * 39/51 * 38/50 = The probability that an Ace, a Three or a Five will NOT be flopped. That comes to 59280/132600, or 0.447.

So the odds that an Ace, a Three or a Five will be flopped is 55.3 percent (1 - 0.447). I had guess that it would be somewhere around 60 percent, but the odds weren't quite that high in my favor.

If my math is wrong, please let me know.

1 comment:

kurokitty said...

That's a huge advantage in the scheme of things. If a casino could take 55 percent instead of the near-even odds it has for (experts playing) blackjack, imagine how much it would rake in!

The first time I heard of this was my first poker trip to Tunica this past Fourth of July weekend. Some kid from Indiana was offering it to players at a NL table.

Greg Raymer would say that some people may want to flip coins for $5,000, but not he! LOL